2025 NCAA Tournament bracketology: Gonzaga projected 2-seed after losses to UConn and Kentucky

The Bulldogs are still in line for one of the tops seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament despite recent setbacks to the Huskies and Wildcats

Gonzaga Bulldogs senior Ben Gregg. / Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

Mark Few optimistically pointed out following Gonzaga’s second consecutive loss of the season — a close 77-71 defeat to UConn at Madison Square Garden — high-profile games against really good teams in December can only benefit his team, win or lose.

In that same breath, the head coach of the Bulldogs (8-3) admitted his team needs to come out on the right side of a close game at some point. The Zags failed to execute down the stretch of their three losses to West Virginia, Kentucky and UConn, particularly on the offensive end of the floor. Gonzaga couldn’t score from the field in the final 3:25 of regulation against the Huskies; went 0-for-9 from 3 in the second half of the overtime loss to the Wildcats and blew a 5-point lead in the final 30 seconds of regulation to West Virginia in the Battle 4 Atlantis.

For now, it appears Few’s first point about scheduling up is holding true. Despite those back-to-back losses, Gonzaga is still projected to earn one of the top seeds in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, as one of the betting favorites to cut down the nets in April nonetheless.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had the Zags on the 2-seed line in his updated forecast released earlier this week. Gonzaga ranks No. 4 in the NET, boasting a pair of Quad 1 victories over Baylor and at San Diego State, and is among the top 10 teams on Barttorvik.com (No. 6) and  KenPom.com (No. 6). The Bulldogs also have four “Wins Above Bubble” — a new metric to the NET this season that shows how many more, or fewer, wins a team has against its schedule versus what a bubble team would expect to have against the same schedule.

As has been the case for most of nonconference play, Gonzaga is on track to make another trip to Seattle this season for the first and second rounds of the tournament. The NCAA Tournament selection committee considers geography, among a multitude of other factors, when placing the top seeds in the 68-team field. 

In addition to two high-quality victories, the Bulldogs’ postseason resume also features wins over two bubble teams in Arizona State (Last Four Byes according to Lunardi) and Indiana (First Four Out). Baylor is on the 5-seed line, San Diego State is slated to earn a 9-seed and UMass-Lowell, which lost to the Zags by 59 in Spokane last month, is projected to fall on the 15-seed line as the favorite to win the America East.

The Mountaineers are on the bubble in the Last Four Byes group as well. Darian DeVries’ squad tips off Big 12 play against Kansas on Dec. 31. With an abidance of Quad 1 and Quad 2 games on the league schedule, West Virginia could move up in the NET if it can take advantage of its opportunities.

Kentucky is one of 13 teams from the SEC featured in the hypothetical field. The Wildcats are Lunardi’s top seed in the West Region, with Gonzaga as the region’s No. 2 seed. 

UConn has moved up to the 4-seed line following its win over the Bulldogs in New York City. The Huskies, who debuted at No. 39 in the NET about two weeks ago, have moved all the way up into the top 15 as they enter Big East play this week.

It appears Lunardi isn’t quite sold on the West Coast Conference being a multi-bid league just yet. Despite having three teams in the top 50 of the NET, the WCC has just two representatives in ESPN’s latest bracketology. While Saint Mary’s is among the Last Four Byes group, Oregon State was overlooked despite ranking inside the top 35 of the NET.

Similar to bracketologists, oddsmakers haven't put much stock into Gonzaga's ledowns. The Zags have the third-shortest odds to win the title on ESPN Bet (+1400) and the fourth-best odds on FanDuel (+1400).

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