2025 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Gonzaga projected as No. 3 seed in Seattle region

Saint Mary’s was the only mid-major projected to earn an at-large bid in ESPN’s 68-team field

Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

With roughly 10 weeks left until the Gonzaga men’s basketball program tips off the 2024-25 regular season, students are back on campus for the first week of class and the offseason is officially in the books.

The last four months were quite eventful for Mark Few and the coaching staff. After they returned seven of the top eight scorers from last season’s Sweet 16 team, they diversified the roster by adding Arkansas grad transfer Khalif Battle, Pepperdine transfer and All-WCC wing Michael Ajayi, Tarleton State transfer Emmanuel Innocenti and Colgate transfer Braeden Smith (redshirt in 2024-25). 

Few got to see how all the new pieces fit in with the existing corp during the first handful of summer workouts in June, though he had other obligations as the assistant coach of USA Basketball to tend to as well. While he was off in Paris helping Team USA clinch the gold medal, Gonzaga’s assistant coaches led the Bulldogs through summer practices back in Spokane. 

Among the things that stood out from the competitive 5-on-5 scrimmages to assistant coach Brian Michaelson, who’s been on the staff for over 15 seasons, was the depth and experience the 2024-25 group boasts in comparison to last season’s team. National pundits seem to agree, which is why the Zags rank near the top of numerous preseason power rankings and polls from humans and computers alike.

Should the results live up to the preseason hype, Gonzaga could find itself having to make just a short trip to Seattle for the first weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. 

The latest projections from ESPN’s 2025 Bracketology have the Bulldogs on the 3-seed line as the automatic qualifiers from the West Coast Conference, which in theory would send them to the closest host city for the first weekend of the tournament. As the University of Washington is set to host the first and second rounds at Climate Pledge Arena on March 21 and 23, the Zags have an opportunity to start another deep postseason run on semi-home turf just a few hours west of Spokane. 

To have a chance at that, they’ll need to capitalize on a difficult nonconference schedule that includes neutral site games against Kentucky (Seattle, Dec. 7), UConn (New York, Dec. 14), UCLA (Inglewood, California, Dec. 28) and Baylor (TBA). The Zags are also home to take on Arizona State (Nov. 10) and on the road for a matchup at San Diego State (Nov. 18) before heading to the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament (Game 1 vs. West Virginia, Nov. 27). 

To reiterate, the Bulldogs will face four teams that Joe Lunardi projects will earn a 6-seed or higher in the tournament: UConn (2-seed), Kentucky (6-seed), UCLA (6-seed) and Baylor (3-seed). Indiana, which could face Gonzaga in the second game of the Atlantis tournament, is on the 5-seed line; Arizona, another potential Atlantis foe, is projected to earn a 3-seed. Louisville and Providence are among Lunardi’s early “First Four Out” teams.

In the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary’s figures to contend for its third straight tournament berth as one of ESPN’s “Last Four Byes” teams. 

There were reports that the NCAA was considering tournament expansion to include possibly 68 or 72 teams in the future. Some power conference commissioners were behind the idea out of concerns that the latest wave of conference expansion would require more postseason bids. Those talks didn’t lead to action, and Lunardi’s Bracketology suggests no change to the tournament will be necessary — the Gaels were the only mid-major team to earn one of the 36 at-large bids in his forecast.

If that were to hold true somehow over the course of the season, that would mark the fewest non-power league at-large bids since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011. Since the field expanded, teams outside the power conferences have averaged just over seven at-large bids per tournament.