Chet Holmgren is the favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year over Victor Wembanyama

Major sportsbooks list the former Gonzaga standout over Wembanyama as the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award

On Nov. 2, it looked like the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year award was Victor Wembanyama's to lose. In just the fifth game of his career, the 7-foot-4 phenom dropped 38 points on the Phoenix Suns in a 132-121 victory for the San Antonio Spurs. Sportsbooks shortened Wembanyama's odds of winning Rookie of the Year drastically after the performance, with some sites setting it as low as -450.

But while the Spurs (3-14) haven't won a game since then, a new betting favorite has emerged. 

Following two impressive performances against all-NBA-caliber bigs last week, Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren is now the odds-on favorite to take home Rookie of the Year honors across major sportsbooks. The former Gonzaga men's basketball standout has odds as low as -159 on BetRivers, while FanDuel and PointsBet list him at -145 odds to take the award. DraftKings and BetMGM have also flipped in favor of Holmgren.

And it's not just sportsbooks that recognize Holmgren as the top rookie thus far into the season. NBA.com's Kia Rookie Ladder listed Holmgren at No. 1 in its rankings for the second straight week, with Wembanyama coming in at No. 2. The battle between the young 7-footers has only intensified as they take on the league's best big men, with both receiving praise from future Hall-of-Famers.

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For Holmgren, he strengthened his case with an impressive and efficient 33-point outing against Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers last week. The Thunder's 7-footer went 13-of-21 from the field, including five 3-pointers, to go along with six rebounds and three blocks in the narrow loss. He had his struggles defensively against the reigning MVP, often switching off the assignment with Jaylin Williams, but it's unreasonable to expect Holmgren will completely shut down an all-NBA center as a rookie.

Holmgren looked more out of sorts offensively against Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves, as he finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists on 6-for-20 from the field. That stat line would fly for just about every other rookie, but Holmgren is already held to a different standard as a near 50/40/90 player — which would be an absurd accomplishment from a shooting perspective for any player, not just a rookie. Credit to Gobert's ability to throw Holmgren out of rhythm for most of the night, though the former NBA Defensive Player of the Year still had praise for his opponent afterward.

“He’s gonna write his own legacy,” Gobert told The Oklahoman, “And I’m excited to witness that.”

Meanwhile, the Spurs' struggles have had nothing to do with Wembanyama. He dropped 22 points in three straight games, two of which were double-doubles, on top of a five-game stretch with two or more blocks. Reigning finals MVP Nikola Jokic noted how much of a difference maker Wembanyama is and will be down the road after the two squared off for the first time on Sunday. Wembanyama had 22 points, 11 rebounds, six steals and four blocks in the 12-point loss.

"He’s 19 years old, he’s not getting tired or getting scared,” Jokic told reporters. “He’s playing hard and he wants to be good. … He’s going to change the game, 100%.”

Holmgren still trails Wembanyama in points, rebounds and blocks per game, though team success and efficiency have favored OKC's budding star. The Thunder are fourth in the Western Conference at 11-6 with Holmgren shooting 53.8% from the floor, 43.1% from deep and 87% from the free-throw line. Not that the Spurs' losing streak falls completely on Wembanyama's shoulders, but his less efficient .430/.275/.824 shooting splits don't help his case at the moment.

Aside from rehab, perhaps an entire year off from the game was beneficial for Holmgren's development. Thus far into his career, the only perceived downside to missing last season was that all the hype and buzz he received coming out of Gonzaga had moved onto a different 7-footer. But just over a month into their careers, Holmgren has taken claim as the NBA's best rookie.

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