College basketball expert: 'Mark Few has been exceptional in close games'

Evan Miya thinks the Zags will enter the NCAA tournament 'criminally under-seeded'

Gonzaga Nation Staff | Feb 17, 2025

Gonzaga head coach Mark Few. / Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

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Don't look now, but the Gonzaga Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season.

A preseason Final Four favorite, the Zags fell off the national radar after losing close games to Kentucky, UConn and UCLA in December.

But Mark Few knows a thing or two about building a winner, and he has steadily put the pieces back together. After dismantling Pepperdine 107-55 on Saturday for their fourth consecutive win, the Bulldogs moved up to No. 10 in the country in the NCAA NET Rankings.

And one college basketball expert thinks the Zags will "revert back to their high preseason expectations."

'They have an elite point guard'

Gonzaga has arguably the best point guard in the country in Ryan Nembhard, and Evan Miya thinks that will make a big difference in March.

"I fully expect this team to revert back to their high preseason expectations," Miya said in a social media post. "I had them ranked as the second-best team in the preseason. They still have a top 5 offense today and they're top 10 overall at EvanMiya.com."

Miya, who runs the basketball analytics site EvanMiya.com, has Gonzaga ranked No. 4 in the country in offensive efficiency. That efficiency was on full display against Pepperdine when the Zags set a program record for assists in a single game with 33.

Nembhard leads the nation in assists per game at 10.0 — and no one else is close. Purdue guard Braden Smith is second at 8.8 per game. But it's Nembhard's recent shot-making that is most encouraging.

The Zags are 2-7 in games decided by eight points or less, largely because they don't have Anton Watson. Last season, everyone knew Watson was going to take the big shots down the stretch. This season, it has been a work in progress. But against San Francisco last week, Nembhard was decisive in big moments, attacking the paint looking to score. That bodes well for the close games Gonzaga will encounter over the next three weeks. Nembhard is their best player, and he needs to take over in crunch time.

"Yes, they've been absolutely brutal in close games this year, but Mark Few has been exceptional in close games in the past," Miya said. "This team is going to enter the tournament criminally under-seeded because of their poor resume. So they'll be in the 6 to 10 seed range, but they will be a popular pick to reach the Sweet 16 for the 10th year in a row."

"Once again, great coaching, veteran leadership and they have an elite point guard in Ryan Nembhard. This Gonzaga team is still dangerous."

There are two teams that I'm buying low on today. Despite the public sentiment being against them, they have all the attributes you look for in a team who improve in March.

I'm calling it, one of these two will make a Sweet 16 this year 👇 pic.twitter.com/JxR4la5KrS
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 17, 2025