Computer models consider Gonzaga among the top national title contenders

The Bulldogs' efficiency marks on both ends of the floor suggest they could make a deep NCAA Tournament run

Cole Forsman | Mar 17, 2025

Gonzaga Bulldogs bench celebrates with forward Braden Huff (34) against the Saint Mary's Gaels during the second half in the final of the West Coast Conference tournament at Orleans Arena / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

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Gonzaga Bulldogs

Of the 68 teams that saw or heard their name come across their TV screens on Selection Sunday, there wasn't arguably a more intriguing postseason resume to track than that of the Gonzaga men's basketball team.

Those familiar with the NCAA Tournament selection process understand that the committee goes through a sort of balancing act with every team that does (and doesn't) make the field. On one hand, there's a team's body of work to consider — who they've beaten and who they've lost to during the regular season and conference tournament week. And on the other hand, the committee has to look at every team's efficiency margins — how well they performed on both ends of the floor during their wins and losses.

In a perfect world, both aspects of a team's NCAA Tournament resume go hand-in-hand. But in the case of the Bulldogs, who rank near the top 10 in the country across multiple predictive metrics websites but outside the top 30 in quality wins, their imbalanced resume led them to fall on the 8-seed line in the Midwest Region to start the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Having to take on 9-seeded Georgia in the first round from Wichita, Kansas, to then potentially face No. 1 seed Houston two days later in the round of 32 certainly doesn't sound like a breezy path for the Zags in their quest for a 10th consecutive appearance in the Sweet 16. According to one database from predictive metrics website KenPom.com, however, the Zags' title aspirations have been kept alive thanks to their strong efficiency margins.

Heading into the tournament, Gonzaga ranks No. 9 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 29 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Of the national championship winners from 2001 to present, 96% entered the tournament ranked top 21 in offensive efficiency, while 91% had a top 31 defense on KenPom. The postseason teams that fit that criteria this season are Auburn (No. 2 in offense, No. 12 on defense); Duke (No. 3, No. 4); Florida (No. 1, No. 10); Gonzaga (No. 9, No. 29); Houston (No. 10, No. 2); Iowa State (No. 20, No. 9); Tennessee (No. 18, No. 3); and Wisconsin (No. 13, No. 27).

For those curious, the highest seed to ever make the national championship game is a No. 8 seed, which has happened four times under the modern format of the NCAA Tournament, most recently in 2022 when North Carolina pulled off the feat. The Tar Heels finished that season ranked No. 18 in offense and No. 35 in defense according to KenPom. The 2014 national champion UConn Huskies were also a bit of an anomaly, ranking No. 39 in offense and No. 10 in defense while earning a No. 7 seed on Selection Sunday.