ESPN BPI predicts Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's

Predictive analytics suggest the Bulldogs have a slight advantage over the Gaels heading into Saturday's showdown

Cole Forsman | Feb 1, 2025

Gonzaga Bulldogs senior guard Nolan Hickman. / Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

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Gonzaga and Saint Mary's have delivered some intense battles over the years, and both sides can expect more of the same heading into Saturday's showdown between West Coast Conference rivals.

The Bulldogs and Gaels have finished in the top two of the WCC standings in 12 of the past 13 seasons. One or the other, or in some cases both, have won every WCC regular season crown since the 2002-03 campaign. It's a similar situation in regard to the conference tournament, as 23 of the past 25 championships since 2000 have gone to either Gonzaga or Saint Mary's.

That said, it doesn't require a computer to guess how the next installment of this heated rivalry might play out. Anyone who's watched the Bulldogs and Gaels duke it out over the last few years has an idea of what to expect Saturday, though it's still worth noting that ESPN's predictive analytics suggest Gonzaga has a slight advantage heading into the clash at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, California.

ESPN BPI's matchup predictor gives the Zags a 52.9% chance to come away with a victory over the Gaels, who've won two of the past three head-to-head matchups at home.

LIVE SCORE UPDATES, HIGHLIGHTS: GONZAGA VS. SAINT MARY'S

Gonzaga enters the matchup coming off an emphatic victory over Oregon State at the McCarthey Athletic Center earlier this week. Khalif Battle scored 23 points off the bench, Graham Ike chipped in 22 and Nolan Hickman added 16 in a 98-60 triumph over the Beavers, who were held to just 38.2% from the field after knocking down 58.5% of their attempts in a 97-89 overtime final on Jan. 16.

Though unranked in the media poll, Gonzaga moved up to No. 11 in the NET Rankings with the win. The Bulldogs lead the country in assists with 19.9 per game and rank No. 2 in scoring offense with 86.9 points per contest.

Saint Mary's enters the matchup as the only unbeaten team left in WCC play after thumping Santa Clara the last time out. The Broncos were held scoreless for a 13-minute stretch while their opponent went on a 30-0 scoring run in the process before the Gaels came away with a 67-54 win at the Leavey Center. Mitchell Saxen led Saint Mary's with 12 points and a pair of blocks.

There's plenty of history between the Bulldogs and Gaels to suggest Saturday's matchup will have a lasting impact on the league standings. Both have finished in the top two of the WCC standings in 12 of the past 13 seasons. One or the other, or in some cases both, have won every WCC regular season crown since the 2002-03 campaign. It's a similar situation in regard to the conference tournament, as 23 of the past 25 championships since 2000 have gone to either Gonzaga or Saint Mary's.