Gonzaga among national championship favorites

The Bulldogs are one of seven teams ‘most likely to win the whole thing’ according to EvanMiaya.com

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Braden Huff. / Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

The Gonzaga men’s basketball team has maintained serious national championship aspirations as it heads into the thick of West Coast Conference play.

While the Bulldogs (12-4, 3-0 WCC) may have lost some of their preseason lust in the sportsbooks and the weekly media and coaches polls as of late, the advanced metrics and analytics suggest Mark Few and company are among the favorites to cut down the nets in April.

EvanMiya.com — a website that uses predictive algorithms to rank teams, players, lineups, etc. — grades the Zags among the top seven teams in the country that are “most likely to win the whole thing,” according to its “predicted efficiency landscape” model. They were joined by Duke, Auburn, Houston, Iowa State, Florida and Alabama in that exclusive group of contenders.

Here's the current college basketball team efficiency landscape, from https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ based on predicted team efficiency going forward.

Teams are in four tiers, and you want to be as far upper right as possible 👇 pic.twitter.com/wRUHaJbW3D

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 8, 2025

Gonzaga entered the season as the No. 1-ranked team on EvanMiya.com. After suffering four close losses in nonconference play, the Bulldogs now check in at No. 7. They rank No. 3 in offensive efficiency, No. 26 in defensive efficiency and have a top-five roster in terms of talent, per EvanMiya.com’s algorithm.

A rather niche tool on EvanMiya.com’s site, called “kill shots,” has become more popular in college basketball circles to measure how scoring runs can impact success. A “kill shot” is any double-digit scoring run; Gonzaga has 16 this season, which is tied with multiple teams for the fifth-most. It’s one of 25 teams in the country that averages at least 1.0 kill shots per game (Texas, Georgia and Maryland are tied for first with 1.33 per contest). 

However, the Bulldogs have conceded seven kill shots this season, which is tied for the most of any team in the top 10 of EvanMiya.com’s rankings. 

Outside of EvanMiya.com, Gonzaga is firmly in the top 10 of other computer ranking systems like the NET Rankings (No. 7), KenPom.com (No. 7) and Barttorvik.com (No. 7). Conversely, the Bulldogs are outside of the top 15 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll (No. 18) and the USA Today Coaches Poll (No. 18). 

The Zags are eighth in the nation averaging 87.4 points per game, which would rank third in school history (2020-21: 91.0). Four players average double-figures, led by Graham Ike at 16.4 per game. Ryan Nembhard is No. 1 in the country with 153 total assists, as Gonzaga is fifth in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.89) and No. 10 averaging 18.8 assists per game.

MORE GONZAGA NEWS & ANALYSIS

• 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Gonzaga among three WCC teams in CBS Sports field

• NET Rankings update: Gonzaga back in the Top 5

• WCC basketball power rankings: Gonzaga, Washington State set to duel for No. 1 spot

• Men's college basketball rankings: Gonzaga moves up in AP Top 25 poll

• NCAA to discuss 5th year of eligibility for all sports in 2025

• How to watch every Gonzaga WCC men's basketball game in 2025

• ESPN Bracketology projects San Francisco will win WCC over Gonzaga

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