Gonzaga gets brutal draw in updated NCAA tournament projections

The Zags are hoping to improve their NCAA tournament seed over the next four weeks

Gonzaga Nation Staff | Feb 16, 2025

Gonzaga senior guard Michael Ajayi. / Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

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The Gonzaga Bulldogs still have a chance to climb much higher in the 2025 NCAA Tournament projections.

The Zags have at least one game against West Coast Conference rival Saint Mary's remaining — and there's a good chance they'll play the Gaels again in the 2025 WCC Tournament. If the Zags win out, they'll be in a similar position to last season when they finished 26-8 and received a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Gonzaga (19-7, 10-3) is currently ranked No. 14 in the NCAA NET Rankings, and two wins over the Gaels could propel them into the top 12 or higher. Last season they finished No. 17 in the NET.

Updated NCAA Tournament predictions

Based on last season's seed, it's hard to see Gonzaga receiving anything lower than a No. 6 seed in March Madness.

But in ESPN's latest Bracketology projections from Joe Lunardi, Gonzaga is slotted as a No. 8 seed in the South Region. And they have a brutal draw.

Lunardi has the Zags matched up against No. 9 New Mexico in the first round. Nobody wants to play the Lobos in the first round. Led by junior guard Donovan Dent (19.6 ppg) Richard Pitino's team is deep, talented and supremely athletic.

The winner of that game is projected to play Auburn in the second round. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee released its top 16 teams on Saturday, and Auburn was No. 1 overall. The Tigers are the betting favorites to win the 2025 men's basketball national championship.

NCAA NET Rankings

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses the NET Rankings as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for the NCAA tournament, and Gonzaga's No. 14 ranking is a good sign.

If the Bulldogs can beat Saint Mary's twice, they could climb at least two spots. And a top-12 ranking in the NET usually results in a No. 5 seed or better in the NCAA tournament.

The Gaels are currently ranked No. 20 in the NET, which means both wins would be considered Quad 1. A Quad 1 win is a home victory over a top 30 team in the NET, or road win over a top 50 team in the NET. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has historically put a lot of value on Quad 1 wins. Gonzaga had four last season and could end up with the exact same number this season.

If the Zags win out, all signs point to a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in March Madness.