Gonzaga ranks No. 2 in EvanMiya’s 2024-25 preseason rankings

College basketball analytics site has the Zags at No. 1 in offensive rating heading into new season

Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

EvanMiya.com, a college basketball advanced analytics website operated by Ph.D. statistician and data scientist Evan Miya, ranked the Gonzaga Bulldogs at No. 2 in the site’s 2024-25 preseason rankings released ahead of the new campaign.

The Zags returned seven of their top eight scorers and 10 players overall from last season’s Sweet 16 team. Four of the five starters, minus Anton Watson, are set to retake their spots in the lineup: Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, Ben Gregg and Graham Ike. Braden Huff and Dusty Stromer are back for their sophomore campaigns as well.

According to Miya’s blog, roster continuity was one of three aspects that were considered in the rankings, along with projected roster strength and team performance in previous seasons. Gonzaga returned 81.4% of its minutes from 2023-24, the fifth-highest retention rate in the country.

Houston, which jumped the Bulldogs for the No. 1 spot in Miya’s preseason projections, also returned more than 75% of its minutes from last season’s squad, which some think could’ve advanced past the Sweet 16 if not for Jamal Shead’s ankle injury against Duke in the NCAA Tournament. With Shead now in the NBA, head coach Kelvin Sampson brought back his four other starters, as well as his top three reserves, to mesh with Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan. The Cougars have the No. 1 projected defense heading into next season.

Conversely, the Bulldogs have the top-ranked offense in the nation going into 2024-25 according to Miya. Gonzaga has finished top five in offensive efficiency for five consecutive seasons on another popular analytics site, KenPom.com. The Zags were fourth in roster strength behind Duke, Kansas and Alabama.

Projected roster strength was “by far” the most important factor considered when Miya’s projections were formulated, according to his blog. Each player has a projected Bayesian Performance Rating, which calculates how impactful a player will be on a per-possession basis during the season. An estimate of a team’s roster strength comes from combining this metric with an associated minutes prediction model for each player.

Ryan Nembhard has the highest Bayesian Performance Rating (5.69) and the highest Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating (4.58) on Gonzaga’s current roster. The point guard’s BPR ranks 35th in the country. Senior forward Ben Gregg is next at 5.57 (42nd) followed by redshirt sophomore Braden Huff at 5.35 (53rd) and senior Graham Ike at 4.84 (83rd). Gregg also has the highest Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating on the roster at 1.48.

Last season, fifth-year senior Anton Watson ranked fifth in the country in Bayesian Performance Rating at 8.06, which was behind only National Player of the Year Zach Edey and three other future NBA players in Donovan Clingan from UConn, Houston’s Jamal Shead and Kentucky product Reed Sheppard.

Roster continuity “doesn’t play a huge role” in Miya’s preseason rankings, though it slightly moves the needle for some teams on the leaderboard.

The Zags are followed by Duke, Alabama and Auburn in Miya’s top five. The Tigers’ Johni Broome has the highest Bayesian Performance Rating in the country heading into the 2024-25 season, as their All-American led all players at 7.66, followed closely by Purdue’s Braden Smith (7.61) and Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey (7.56).

The Cyclones checked in at No. 6 on the rankings after returning more than 65% of their minutes from last season. Kansas followed, then Arizona, back-to-back champion UConn and Baylor in the top 10. The Bulldogs could see the teams ranked No. 7-10 in Miya’s projection this season, as they’ll open the season against the Bears on Nov. 4, then the Huskies in Madison Square Garden later on Dec. 14. Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats could be on the schedule depending on how the Battle 4 Atlantis bracket plays out over Thanksgiving. 

After facing No. 82 West Virginia in the opener, Gonzaga will see either No. 17 Indiana or No. 43 Louisville on day two of the Bahamas tournament (Nov. 27-29). 

Arizona State, which visits The Kennel on Nov. 10, snuck into Miya’s top 100 at No. 99. In total, Gonzaga’s nonconference schedule features eight teams in the top 100: San Diego State (No. 69), Kentucky (No. 22) and UCLA (No. 24) in addition to the five other aforementioned opponents, including the potential second matchups at Atlantis.

In the West Coast Conference, the Bulldogs were 47 spots ahead of the projected No. 2 team in the league, Saint Mary’s, which has the highest defensive rating in the WCC going into the season. San Francisco was at No. 75, then Washington State at No. 94 and Santa Clara at No. 98 in the top 100.