Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. TCU prediction: Zags need to contain Mike Miles Jr. to advance to NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

TCU is 9-1 this season when Miles Jr. scores at least 20 points

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one victory away from their eighth consecutive trip to the Sweet 16.

After beating Grand Canyon on Friday night, the Zags will face the TCU Horned Frogs in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night. Tipoff on CBS is set for 6:40 p.m. PST.

Julian Strawther and Drew Timme led an impressive second-half offensive surge against Grand Canyon. Strawther finished with 28 points and 10 rebounds, Timme posted 21 points and Gonzaga dominated the boards while holding the Lopes to 43.1% shooting from the field.

“I felt like as a whole we were a little nervous, which is human nature,” Timme said of Gonzaga’s first-half performance. “And then once we decided to calm down, recollect ourselves … we got back to what we did [all season long].”

Now, Gonzaga faces a TCU squad that’s earned the respect of Gonzaga head coach Mark Few all season long.

“I think they’re as good a team as there is in this tournament, especially when they’re at their high end,” Few said. “And just talking to other coaches in the Big 12 — I think they would say the same thing.”

Led by junior guard Mike Miles Jr.’s 26 points, No. 6 TCU won its first-round matchup against No. 11 Arizona State in thrilling fashion after trailing the Sun Devils throughout the game. The Horned Frogs, who went 20-for-27 from the charity stripe, didn’t take their first lead until a pair of free throws from Damion Baugh with 34 seconds remaining in the second half. Miles Jr. found JaKobe Coles open for a floater in the lane with 1.5 seconds left to give TCU a 72-70 victory.

“Man it’s great, I’m so happy for him,” Miles Jr. said of Coles. “I’m proud of everybody, you know we were down and we stayed together. We’ve been through a lot so that shows how resilient we are.”

TCU (22-12, 9-9) finished fifth in the Big 12 standings behind Miles Jr., who was named second team All-Big 12 for the second time in his career after averaging a team-high 17.6 points this season. The 6-foot-2 guard posted career-highs in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage as well.

Miles Jr.’s signature moment came in a 33-point performance in TCU’s upset victory over then-No. 9 Baylor on the road on Jan. 4. Including Friday’s game, TCU is 9-1 this season when Miles Jr. scores 20 or more points.

The Horned Frogs get their playmaking from senior guard Damion Baugh, who joined Miles Jr. on the All-Big 12 second team after leading the team with 5.9 assists while scoring 12.5 points per outing. Senior forward Emmanuel Miller chips in 12.3 points per game while shooting 50% from the field and 31% from deep.

After holding ASU to 36% shooting in the second half, Horned Frogs head coach Jamie Dixon emphasized how importance defense and rebounding will be going forward.

“I think we gained a lot of confidence from this game and a belief and understanding that the defense has to win it and that’s what we did in the second half,” Dixon said. “And outrebounding [ASU] in the second half by a good margin too, so those things are what brought us back and we’ve got to do that.”

TCU outrebounded ASU 38-34 and improved to 15-2 this season when outrebounding its opponents. Ranked 23rd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, the Horned Frogs were second in the Big 12 with 4.71 blocked shots per game while allowing opponents to shoot 30.8% from deep.

Offensively, TCU is among the fastest teams in the country with 17.68 fast break points per game.

“It’ll be a handful,” Few said about the matchup. “But you know, we’ll rest these guys up and we’ve seen everything this year. And these guys have always responded.

Prediction: Gonzaga 80, TCU 76