Gonzaga-UConn features NCAA Tournament implications for both teams

The Bulldogs are on the 2-seed line in Joe Lunardi’s latest ESPN Bracketology

Gonzaga senior guards Nolan Hickman (left) and Michael Ajayi (right). / Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

Don’t look now, but the Gonzaga Bulldogs (7-2) have almost reached the unofficial halfway point of the college basketball regular season.

With just over two weeks until West Coast Conference play tips off, the Zags have blazed through a majority of their nonconference schedule. They throttled Baylor on opening night, earned impressive victories over Arizona State at home and San Diego State on the road, then won two games in the Battle 4 Atlantis over a three-day span from Paradise Island, Bahamas — all before the calendar flipped to December.

That said, there are plenty more hoops to be played before March rolls around. For the Bulldogs, who are set to take on UConn (7-3) this Saturday at Madison Square Garden, they have to tackle three more nonleague foes prior to their 18-game league schedule, which begins with a trip to Malibu, California, for a matchup against Pepperdine on Dec. 30. Also worth noting this WCC slate will look a little different for Mark Few and company, as the league added two games to its league calendar after bringing in affiliate members Washington State and Oregon State over the offseason.

While the Cougars (8-2) and Beavers (6-2) should present some unique challenges in league play later this season, as well as stalwarts Saint Mary’s (9-1) and San Francisco (8-2), the number of opportunities for the Bulldogs to pick up high-quality wins between now and Selection Sunday is dwindling. Especially considering two of their last three nonconference games are tune-up games, with the exception of their showdown against UCLA (8-1) at the Intuit Dome on Dec. 28.

“It’s going to be curious because if you really think about it: this game and then the UCLA game are kind of the last couple to really get a marquee win,” former Gonzaga All-American Adam Morrison said on The Perimeter. “So this [game against UConn] is a bigger game than I think would be expected if we got the Kentucky win. Just for KenPom, our RPI, all that stuff later down the road — our [NCAA] Tournament resume is what I'm trying to get at.”

Morrison needs not to worry about Gonzaga’s postseason chances at the moment. Sitting at No. 3 in the NET and No. 4 at KenPom.com, the Bulldogs are projected to earn one of the top eight overall seeds in the eyes of ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi, who currently has the Zags slated on the 2-seed line in his forecast of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. If that were to play out, the Bulldogs would likely be sent back across the state to Seattle for the tournament’s first and second rounds at Climate Pledge Arena.

However, for Lunardi’s prediction to come to fruition, Gonzaga will need to take care of its business and hope that other teams from around the country — specifically ones from down in SEC land — don’t capitalize off their numerous Quad 1 games in January and February to jump ahead in the NET on Selection Sunday. The SEC currently takes up half of the NET’s top 10 and has all 16 of its members ranked inside the top 100, which means Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky and Alabama will have ample opportunities to build their respective cases to be placed on the 1- or 2-seed line by the selection committee. Bruce Pearl’s Tigers (8-1) are Lunardi’s No. 1 overall seed at the moment, while the Volunteers (1-seed), Wildcats (2-seed) and Crimson Tide (2-seed) aren’t far behind in the conference race.

When the 2024-25 NET Rankings debuted on Dec. 1, the Bulldogs had a pair of Quad 1 wins from beating Baylor at the Spokane Arena and San Diego State at the Viejas Arena. They had a chance at adding a third with a win over Kentucky, though the Wildcats flipped the script after coming back from down 18 points in the second half to pull off a stunning win in Seattle. That 90-89 overtime loss sets up a pivotal matchup with a Huskies squad that’s also looking to finish its nonconference slate on a high note.

Dan Hurley and company haven’t looked the part of being the reigning back-to-back national champions thus far this season, though things seem to be getting on the right track after a disastrous 0-3 showing in the Maui Invitational. UConn rebounded with a 76-72 win over Baylor at home, then went down to Austin, Texas, and beat the Longhorns by double-digits to jump up to No. 20 in the NET — quite the leap considering the Huskies started the season at No. 39.

A fourth loss before conference play wouldn’t be the best situation for the Huskies to be in, but at the same time, they’ll have opportunities to add to their resume against the other top teams in the Big East. The Zags, meanwhile, don’t have the same margin for error.

Based on the current leaderboard, the Bulldogs’ most likely Quad 1 opportunities in WCC play will be away from home against the Gaels (No. 34 in NET), the Dons (No. 49), the Beavers (No. 52) and the Cougars (No. 64). Of course things can change over the next two weeks — Saint Mary’s is awfully close to being a Quad 1 game at home as it is — and Quad 2 victories often get lumped into the “quality of wins” discussion at the end of the season anyway. The rest of the league, though, is ranked outside the top 90 in the NET.

The NET is one of many factors the NCAA considers when seeding teams, though it’s hard to ignore how important Quad 1 wins have become since the NET’s inception in 2019. Last season, all eight No. 1 and No. 2 seeds boasted at least eight Quad 1 victories. When Gonzaga earned the No. 1 overall seed in 2022, it had 10 wins in 13 Quad 1 games; it had eight Quad 1 wins the season prior before advancing all the way to the national championship game as the No. 1 seed.

MORE GONZAGA NEWS & ANALYSIS

• Mark Few expects ‘another great environment’ when Gonzaga faces UConn at Madison Square Garden

• Former Saint Mary's star buried on UConn bench

• Gonzaga and UConn by the numbers

• Gonzaga's Nolan Hickman finds balance within himself in leadership role with Zags: 'Guys follow him'

• Column: Is it time for college basketball to move on from the AP poll?

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