How should the NCAA Tournament selection committee seed Gonzaga? 'Lower than where they should be'

The Bulldogs rank among the top teams in the country in overall efficiency, but will the selection committee lean too hard on their postseason resume come Selection Sunday?

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (13) celebrates with guard Nolan Hickman (11). / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The Gonzaga men's basketball team won't have to worry about whether it'll hear its name called during Selection Sunday, but it's still anyone's guess as to when and where the Bulldogs will be going for the first weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The Zags (25-8, 14-4 WCC) secured one of the 32 automatic bids that the NCAA Tournament selection committee grants to teams that won their conference tournament after taking down Saint Mary's in the West Coast Conference championship game earlier this week in Las Vegas.

The 58-51 victory over the Gaels wasn't the most aesthetic form of basketball to watch, as both teams combined to go 1-for-31 from 3-point range, though it didn't hurt Gonzaga's high efficiency margins in the slightest. The Zags still rank in the top 10 of notable predictive metrics websites like KenPom (No. 9), Torvik (No. 8) and the NCAA's primary sorting tool, the NET, where they check in at No. 8 following their fifth quadrant 1 win of the season.

Gonzaga is on pace to finish inside KenPom's top 10 teams in offensive efficiency for the seventh season in a row, depending on how the rest of its postseason run plays out. But unlike in previous years, the Bulldogs don't have as many high quality wins on their resume compared to the other teams ranked near the top of the predictive metrics websites.

The Zags rank No. 35 in the country in the NET's wins above bubble metric, which is a measurement of how an average bubble team would fare against that team's same schedule. That ranking could take a slight dip as conference tournaments in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Big East and SEC wage on, giving those other teams near the top of the NET more opportunities to bolster their respective postseason resumes. As of this writing, Gonzaga's 10 combined wins in quad 1 and quad 2 are the second-fewest among the top 30 teams in the NET.

March 11, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs celebrate after defeating the St. Mary's Gaels after the game in the final of the West Coast Conference tournament at Orleans Arena. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

So how will the selection committee balance Gonzaga's efficiency margins against its postseason resume?

"They're going to be seeded much lower than where they should be," said Matt Norlander, a college basketball reporter for CBS Sports, during a podcast show with analyst Gary Parrish the day after the WCC championship game. "Personally, if the committee gets to a point where they're going through the seeding and Gonzaga — let's say it's on the 7-seed line. That's just where it shakes out. Personally, I really don't have an issue."

Norlander's counterparts at ESPN seem to agree with his line of vision. Joe Lunardi had the Bulldogs on the 7-seed line in the East Region, which would send them to Cleveland, Ohio, for the first round against 10-seed Oklahoma in a hypothetical matchup at Rocket Arena that'd be played on March 21. Lunardi's 2-seed in that region is Tennessee, most likely the Zags' second round opponent if both were to win their first round games in this scenario.

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm, conversely, has Gonzaga on the 9-seed line in the South Region and facing 8-seed Creighton in the first round at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, with the winner advancing to likely take on Lunardi's top overall seed, Auburn, in the round of 32. Fox Sports' Mike DeCourcy similarly has the Zags in his 8-seed vs. 9-seed game in the Midwest Region, with Houston as the No. 1 seed and likely opponent for round two.

So it would seem likely that in any case, the Zags would have to go through one of the top eight teams seeded in the bracket if they're to make their 10th consecutive trip to the Sweet 16. And on the other hand, a No. 1 or No. 2 seed would have to play a team that ranks top 10 across every predictive metrics website and has won 11 of its last 13 games heading into the tournament in a second round matchup.

"This isn't just about being fair to Gonzaga, it's about being fair to the rest of the bracket — the higher seeded teams in that region," Parrish said. "Yeah, we could, based on resume, placed them as an 8-seed or whatever — I'm just making up numbers now — and we could justify it. But at the end of the day, are we being fair to the 1-seed that's probably going to have to play them in the round of 32?"

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (13), guard Khalif Battle (99), and guard Nolan Hickman (11). / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

It'll also be interesting to note whether the committee accounts for the fact that all eight of Gonzaga's losses during the regular season came by an average margin of 5.1 points. According to KenPom, Gonzaga ranks 339th in the country in "luck rating." For reference, only one other team ranked in KenPom's top 55 has a worse luck rating (Villanova is No. 54 overall but ranks 341st in luck).

"I think that's why we're such an interesting seed going into this NCAA Tournament," Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said of his team playing in numerous close games this season following the WCC championship. "We've got more banked 3s on us than I could ever, ever remember in my entire career. But whether it's law of averages coming through or just resiliency and working on it really and concentrating on it, because it has cost us. Or maybe it's just desperation by some seniors who don't want this thing to end. I think it's probably a combination of those three things."

Selection Sunday begins Sunday at 3 p.m. PST on CBS.

MORE GONZAGA NEWS & ANALYSIS

• After winning WCC, Gonzaga makes move in March Madness projections

• What Gonzaga's Mark Few said after WCC championship win vs. Saint Mary's

• NCAA Tournament bound: Gonzaga beats Saint Mary’s to clinch automatic bid

• Gonzaga’s Ben Gregg puts Saint Mary’s star on a poster with vicious dunk

• Could Gonzaga coach be candidate for Big 12 job?

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