Is Gonzaga undervalued heading into the 2023-24 college basketball season?

Numerous experts have the Bulldogs ranked outside the top 10 in preseason power rankings

The buzz surrounding the Gonzaga men's basketball program heading into the 2023-24 season feels slightly ... off. 

The Zags tipped off last season as the No. 2 ranked team in the Associated Press Top 25 poll. The previous two seasons, the Zags were ranked No. 1 in the country coming out of the preseason, a testament to the dominant stretch put together by coach Mark Few. 

But now, with Drew Timme gone, it appears that there's a level of uncertainty surrounding this year's Bulldogs squad. As the season draws nearer, more and more experts and analysts expect a slight decline from the Zags. 

CBS Sports, The Field of 68 and 247Sports ranked Gonzaga outside of the top-10 teams in their respective preseason Top 25 rankings, with the lowest being 19th in CBS Sports' Top 25 and 1 rankings. The Zags haven't ranked that low in the preseason AP poll since the 2017-18 campaign, and while there are obviously concerns heading into 2023-24, there are also reasons to believe Few's program can exceed those expectations. 

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Yes, not having a go-to guy like Timme or an NBA-level talent in Julian Strawther are major losses that won't be replaced. Instead, the Zags will be much more balanced in their offensive approach. Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard proved he can handle the game's biggest stages during last season's NCAA Tournament, and like his brother and former Gonzaga guard Andrew, he makes everyone around him better with his playmaking ability. 

Wyoming transfer Graham Ike averaged 19.5 points and 9.6 rebounds two seasons ago on a team that went to the NCAA Tournament. He missed last season with a lower leg injury, but assuming he's healthy, he'll be a dominant force down low for the Zags.

"I expect him to be one of the best bigs in the country," said CBS Sports college basketball analyst Gary Parrish on the Gonzaga Nation podcast.

Steele Venters, a career 40% 3-point shooter at Eastern Washington, is the reigning Big Sky MVP and has NCAA Tournament experience. Anton Watson is back for a fifth year as the undisputed leader in the locker room. It's an experienced starting five that can build continuity throughout the regular season.

Updated Gonzaga men's basketball depth chart for 2023-24

Still, there are some uncertainties. Nolan Hickman will have to bounce back from a lackluster postseason run as the secondary distributor to Nembhard. The bench lacks experience, as Dusty Stromer, Jun Seok Yeo, Luka Krajnovic and Pavle Stosic have yet to appear in Bulldogs' uniforms. And the defense, which ranked 73rd in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, will need to improve to take pressure off the offensive end of the floor. 

But unknowns don't always lead to the worst of outcomes, especially when it comes to Gonzaga. There were plenty of doubts throughout last season — from sitting at 5-3 in early December following ugly losses to Texas, Purdue and Baylor, to a handful of games against West Coast Conference rivals that had many wondering if the team would be ready to compete in March. It was the first time in the last five seasons the team never reached No. 1 in the AP poll at any point in the season, but that didn't stop a memorable run to the Elite Eight in defiance of all the doubts surrounding the supporting cast.

In fact, think back five years ago to the 2017-2018 squad. Coming off the program's first appearance in the National Championship game, the Zags lost four double-digit scorers, including stalwarts Nigel Williams-Goss and Pzremek Karnowski, over the offseason. Josh Perkins took the next step as a redshirt junior and Johnathan Williams ascended to be the team's leading scorer down low. Zach Norvell Jr. hadn't played a second of college basketball at this point as a redshirt freshman, while Killian Tillie was still proving himself after showing flashes as a freshman.

Rui Hachimura wasn't viewed as a perfect fit in Gonzaga's offense yet. Corey Kispert, Jesse Wade and Jacob Larsen were all youngsters coming off the bench. It was a significant decline, in terms of talent, from the team that finished as the runner-up a season prior, but that didn't stop the Zags from exceeding expectations — a 32-5 finish en route to another Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

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Understandably that squad had more continuity than this season's bunch. But don't be surprised if five players score in double figures, just like the 2017-18 team did. It's not a clean comparison, but it's certainly a viable blueprint that can translate to success in 2023-24. 

Gonzaga will be tested in the nonconference, with likely five or more Top-25 opponents along the way. Early season losses could see the Zags tumble in the rankings, but those won't entirely matter until the last few weeks in February. The amount of uncertainties hurts Gonzaga's value at the moment, but gives the team some time to mesh before another deep run in the NCAA Tournament.