NCAA Tournament 2023: Can Grand Canyon upset Gonzaga Bulldogs in first round?

It’s no secret Gonzaga runs its offense through Drew Timme

For the first time since 2018, the Gonzaga men’s basketball team isn’t a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Zags (28-5, 14-2 WCC) were given the No. 3 seed in the West Region and will play Grand Canyon (24-11, 11-7 WAC) on Friday in Denver.

Gonzaga has won nine games in a row, most recently crushing Saint Mary’s by 26 points in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game.

However, the Zags aren’t immune to the upset bug. They’ve lost five times this season, with several more matchups decided in the final minutes.

Here are three keys for No. 14 Grand Canyon to take down No. 3 Gonzaga:

STOPPING TIMME IS KEY, BUT DON’T FORGET ABOUT WATSON

Photo by James Snook, USA TODAY Sports

It’s no secret Gonzaga runs its offense through Drew Timme, and opposing teams have done everything in their power to contain the two-time All-American this season.

Efforts to stop Timme haven’t prevented him from averaging career highs across the board: 20.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. Still, a select few teams have been able to pack the paint and limit Timme’s usual production. He had nine points and took six shots in a 64-63 loss to Baylor on Dec. 2, while he put up 11 points on 3-for-16 shooting from the field in a 77-75 win over USF on Jan. 5.

In those two contests, the Zags remained competitive by relying on their guards to supplement Timme’s lack of scoring. Rasir Bolton had 27 points, including the game-winning putback layup to defeat San Francisco and Malachi Smith led Gonzaga with 16 points against Baylor.

After an up-and-down start to WCC play, Timme has been on a tear while leading the Zags during their undefeated stretch, which dates back to February 9. In this timespan, Timme has averaged 20 points per game on 69.7% shooting.

Timme has received help from Anton Watson, who had a season-high 20 points to lead Gonzaga past San Francisco in the WCC Tournament semifinals. Watson has also been setting up his teammates to score, as he’s led the Zags in assists in three of the past four games.

“I thought Anton was spectacular,” Few said after Gonzaga’s win over San Francisco. “They chose not to guard him. I’m not sure why teams are doing that right now because he’s playing at an extremely high level.”

Watson’s impact extends to the defensive end where he leads the Zags with 1.9 steals per game and often gets tasked with defending the opposing team’s best frontcourt player.

DON’T LET STRAWTHER CATCH FIRE FROM DEEP

Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

For the first half of the season, the Zags didn’t have a clear second option behind Timme.

Julian Strawther has stepped into that role during the past month, averaging 17.1 points per game and shooting 44.4% from beyond the 3-point arc since then.

His ability to knock down shots at a high clip helped him score a career-high 40 points in an 82-67 win over Portland on January 28. Strawther shot 8-for-12 on 3-point attempts that night.

Gonzaga is 17-0 this season when Strawther finishes with at least 15 points.

He was recently named one of five finalists for the Julius Erving Award, which honors the top small forward in college basketball each season.

SCORE EARLY AND SCORE OFTEN

Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

Keeping pace with Gonzaga’s offense is no small task, but it’s a challenge Grand Canyon will endure on Friday.

The Zags average 87.5 points per game on 52.9% shooting from the field, leading the country in both statistical categories.

While slowing Gonzaga down is not a feasible goal, scoring points against Few’s squad is a much different story. The team allows an average of 73.9 points per game, which is worse than 261 teams in college basketball.

The Zags gave up 90 points to Pacific and 88 points to Pepperdine, neither of which are top-100 in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom. The Antelopes are No. 54 in that metric, so for them to put up similar numbers isn’t out of the question.