NCAA Tournament Bracketology update: Gonzaga drops to 5-seed after loss to Saint Mary's

The Zags haven't been lower than a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament since the 2018-19 season

The Gonzaga men’s basketball team will likely take a different route to the NCAA Tournament this season.

After Saturday’s 78-70 overtime loss to No. 15 Saint Mary’s, the Zags (19-5, 8-2) find themselves sitting firmly in second place in the West Coast Conference behind the Gaels, who have a two-game lead in the standings with six regular season games remaining. The two programs square off in a pivotal matchup in Spokane in late February, but as of now, Gonzaga’s streak of 10 consecutive WCC regular-season titles is in jeopardy.

The Zags shared the title in the 2015-16 season, which was also the last time they lost multiple conference games in the regular season.

It's likely that Gonzaga won't be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three seasons.

The Zags hold a 5-seed in ESPN’s latest 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology projections by Joe Lunardi, down two spots from the previous edition. Tuesday night’s slate of games played an impact, as UConn and Indiana each picked up top-25 wins over conference foes to move up onto the 4-seed line.

Lunardi’s 1-seeds are Purdue, Alabama, Houston and Arizona. Tommy Lloyd's Wildcats moved up from his last projection amid a six-game win streak. The Boilermakers remain at the top despite their loss to Indiana on Saturday.

The Gaels are also in line for a 5-seed, the same spot they were in last season as an at-large bid.

CBS Sports’ NCAA Tournament projections by Jerry Palm have Gonzaga as a 4-seed in the West region, pitting them in a first-round matchup against No. 13 UC Santa Barbara in Sacramento. The Gauchos (18-4, 9-2) sit atop the Big West as they aim to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2020-21 season.

In addition to Purdue and Alabama, Palm has Texas and Kansas as No. 1 seeds.

While the rest of Gonzaga's slate doesn’t feature many top-25 teams, every game down the stretch impacts the Zags’ resume. Matchups against BYU (Feb. 11), at LMU (Feb. 16) and at Saint Mary’s (Feb. 25) are among the most pivotal.