NCAA Tournament bracketology: Gonzaga projected as No. 3 seed in Spokane

Latest ESPN bracketology update has Bulldogs staying in Spokane for the first and second rounds, while Saint Mary's sits on the outside looking in

The No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs might not have to travel far for the first and second rounds of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

While it's still early in nonconference play, the latest ESPN Bracketology from Joe Lunardi has the Zags (4-1) as a No. 3 seed in the South Region, with the first and second rounds hosted at the Spokane Arena. That projection has remained the same since the start of the 2023-24 season, and after they went 2-1 at the Maui Invitational, the reality of the Bulldogs starting their postseason run with essentially two home games is that much closer to becoming a reality.

For Lunardi's prediction to come true, Gonzaga will have to hold up its end of the bargain while facing a tough road ahead. A battle with USC (ranked 33rd on KenPom) in Las Vegas awaits on Dec. 2, before an Elite Eight rematch with No. 4 UConn at Climate Pledge Arena on Dec. 15. A home game against national runner-up San Diego State concludes the calendar year, while one more test on the road against No. 11 Kentucky will finish nonconference play on Feb. 10.

That slate, coupled with West Coast Conference action, grades as the ninth-toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom and the second-toughest among AP Top 25 teams.

In Gonzaga's part of the bracket, Lunardi has USC, Iowa State and Weber State, which would face the Bulldogs in the first round as a 14-seed. The Wildcats, who entered the season as the favorites to win the Big Sky Conference, boosted their resume with a come-from-behind win on the road against Saint Mary's on Nov. 12. All-conference selection Dillon Jones torched the Gaels with 29 points and 11 rebounds.

Since being picked to win the WCC by the league's coaches, Saint Mary's (3-4) has gotten off to a rocky start in nonconference play. The loss to the Wildcats was the first of a three-game losing skid for Randy Bennett's program, which dropped another home game on Monday to Utah in a 78-71 affair. The early-season losses for a team with high expectations could prevent Saint Mary's from hearing its name called on Selection Sunday.

Lunardi listed the Gaels on the bubble as a "next four out" team in his latest projection, along with Indiana, New Mexico and Virginia Tech. An at-large bid is seemingly out of reach at the moment, but there are still a few more chances for Saint Mary's to pick up quality wins in nonconference play. Notably, road games against Boise State (Dec. 1) No. 20 Colorado State (Dec. 9) and a home game against Kent State (Dec. 29) are all matchups with top-120 KenPom teams.

As for now, the WCC is likely a one-bid team with Gonzaga.

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