NCAA Tournament bracketology: Gonzaga up to No. 1 seed in West Region

Bulldogs jumped from the 2-seed line in ESPN’s bracketology following 38-point victory over No. 8 Baylor

Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

Gonzaga sent a message in its season-opening win over No. 8 Baylor, and the college basketball world noticed. 

The Bulldogs’ 38-point victory over the Bears, which marked the largest win over a top 10 team to start a season, moved Mark and Few and company up the seeding latter in a few notable early-season bracketology models for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN Bracketology by Joe Lunardi had Gonzaga as the No. 1 seed in the West Region, which would most certainly send the school on a trip back to Seattle for the first weekend of the tournament if the prediction held true. The tournament’s selection committee takes geography into account, along with a handful of other factors, when it seeds the top teams in the field. That means the Zags would likely stay in-state for the first two rounds even if they were on the 2-seed line, which they currently sit on according to CBS Sports Bracketology by Jerry Palm. 

Gonzaga has earned a No. 4 seed or better in each of the past six tournaments, including a run of three- straight No. 1 seeds from 2019-2022. Should the trend continue into 2025, it’s probable the Bulldogs’ run to the Final Four would go through San Francisco, California, where the West Regional round is set to be hosted at the Chase Center on March 27 and 29. In addition to a few regular season games against the San Francisco Dons, Gonzaga has already played one NCAA Tournament game at the home of the Golden State Warriors before, when it lost to Arkansas in the Sweet 16 in 2022.

If the Zags are to live up to the expectations of Lunardi and Palm this season, they’ll have to go through a handful of other talented programs that are projected to make the 68-team field. After taking down Baylor (3-seed on CBS), Gonzaga looks forward to dates against Kentucky (7-seed), UConn (1-seed) and UCLA (6-seed), with the potential to see two more in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. Indiana, a potential second-day foe, is sitting on the 5-seed line while Arizona, potentially the third and final matchup of the Atlantis event, is on the 3-seed line according to Lunardi.

Saint Mary’s appears to be on the bubble to start the season, as the Gaels are one of the four “Last Four Byes” teams in Lunardi’s field. Palm, meanwhile, currently has Randy Bennett and company pulling off their fourth consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 9 seed in the West Region. Saint Mary’s won its season-opener in a 76-69 victory over Towson on Monday.

The West Coast Conference is expected to be just one of two multi-bid leagues at the mid-major level according to ESPN Bracketology, along with the Atlantic 10 (VCU and Dayton). The SEC and Big Ten tied for the most representatives in Lunardi’s field with 10 apiece, while the Big 12 followed with nine. 

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