Gonzaga top seed in WCC tournament bracket set using Kenpom metrics

The WCC has gone with Kenpom's adjusted winning percentage for the second straight year to construct its brackets for the men's and women's tournament

The Zags had a conference AWP of 92.1% compared to the team's true winning percentage of 88.2%

With all of the regular season games for the men’s and women’s basketball wrapped up in West Coast Conference action, the brackets for Las Vegas are set for March 4-8. To establish conference rankings for seeding in both single elimination tournaments, the WCC used KenPom’s adjusted win percentage (AWP) calculations for the second year in a row.

KenPom is a set of advanced college basketball analysis metrics assembled by highly regarded statistical analyst Ken Pomeroy.

This season, the WCC once again had to rule some games noncontests after five men’s games and six women’s games were called off due to COVID-19 protocols. That means that some teams didn’t get in all of their 16 conference games on the men’s side or 18 conference games on the women’s side. For instance, Gonzaga’s men’s team played 14 of its conference games this season and the women’s team played 17 games.

In order to put together accurate brackets considering teams have uneven schedules, the WCC collaborated with Pomeroy and his AWP system that he uses throughout all of college basketball. The calculation takes into account the strength of each opponent based on KenPom’s own ranking system and whether or not a WCC contest was home or away for a team. Part of Kenpom’s ranking system, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, are not taken into account for the WCC bracket rankings.

𝔄𝔯𝔢 𝔜𝔬𝔲 ℜ𝔢𝔞𝔡𝔶?

The #WCChoops men's bracket ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/Xp4LPtfpdR

— WCC Basketball (@WCChoops) February 27, 2022

With the new ranking system in mind, GU’s men’s team still finished in first place in the WCC and ended with an AWP of 92.1% which is higher than the team’s true conference winning percentage of 88.2%. With the No. 1 seeding for the men’s team, the Zags are set to play in the conference semifinals on March 7. That game will be between the winner of WCC No. 4 San Francisco and whichever program makes it out between Pacific, Loyola Marymount and BYU.

On the other side of the bracket is the two-seeded Saint Mary’s Gael, which had a calculated AWP of 81.6% compared to the 80% win percentage the Gaels have on their record. Saint Mary’s will look forward to a match against either the No. 3 Santa Clara, or the surviving program between Portland, San Diego and Pepperdine.

Utilizing AWP, the only change in the rankings comes between LMU and Portland at the No. 8 and 9 spots respectively. LMU finished 3-12 in conference while Portland went 3-11, but Kenpom’s calculations gave the AWP advantage to LMU with a 22.2% while Portland ended up with an 18.3%.

It's Tourney Time.

The #WCChoops women's bracket ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/HPtXiZmph5

— WCC Basketball (@WCChoops) February 27, 2022

Gonzaga women’s program remains in second place for the conference tournament with an 87% AWP. The Zags’ only two losses in conference this season came at the hand of No. 19 BYU which GU could prospectively play again should both teams win their respective semifinal contest on Monday and make it to Tuesday’s championship.