What is Gonzaga's path to 2024 NCAA Tournament berth?

Scenarios to watch for down the stretch of the Bulldogs' regular season as they push for their 25th consecutive NCAA Tournament

Usually at this point in the college basketball season, the only thing left to question regarding the Gonzaga Bulldogs is what seed they'll be in the NCAA Tournament. 

That's not the case this time around, and while they still technically control their own destiny in the West Coast Conference Tournament, their postseason aspirations would be greatly jeopardized if they didn't leave Las Vegas next month with the program's fifth-straight WCC Tournament title. Gonzaga (18-6, 8-2 WCC) is projected to be left out of the 2024 NCAA Tournament in the latest ESPN Bracketology by Joe Lunardi — a sentiment that's shared with other bracketology experts — which would end the program's streak of 24 consecutive appearances in the NCAA Tournament.

The Bulldogs improved their at-large resume in thrilling fashion Saturday, when they pulled off an 89-85 upset over then-No. 17 Kentucky at Rupp Arena for their first Quad 1 win of the season (1-5). They'll have two more Quad 1 opportunities in the regular season — at San Francisco in the Chase Center (Feb. 29) and at Saint Mary's (March 2) — before the WCC Tournament.

Until then, Gonzaga has to take care of business — and some help from other programs across the country wouldn't hurt either.

Here are three things that will impact Gonzaga's push for an at-large berth.

NONCONFERENCE FOES NEED TO STEP UP

In an odd twist of events, Gonzaga fans need to root for Pac-12 schools on the side. In particular, keep an eye on what USC, UCLA and Washington do down the stretch of the regular season. All three were slated to be Quad 1 or 2 opponents when the schedule dropped in the fall, but now all three nonconference games are at risk of being either Quad 2 or 3.

The Huskies (68th in the NET) are the only Quad 1 opponent of the bunch though Mike Hopkins' team is 5-8 in Pac-12 play (10th in the standings) and is trending in the wrong direction. Washington has struggled against the conference's best teams, with its best win of the season undoubtedly coming out of league play against Gonzaga back in December. The latter portion of the Huskies' schedule is favorable, with five of the last seven coming against Quad 3 competition.

The Bulldogs would benefit if the Huskies handled their business to end the regular season and stay within the top 75 of the NET, which would keep that Dec. 9 game as a Quad 1 game for Gonzaga.

Photo by Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports

USC and UCLA have work to do if either wants to crack the top 100 of the NET, otherwise, Gonzaga's games against the Trojans and Bruins will count on its resume as Quad 3. 

USC, last in the Pac-12 at 3-10, has stiff competition with road games at Washington State, Washington and Arizona left on the schedule. The Trojans are 2-12 in the first two quadrants and will face seven Quad 1 or 2 teams to end the season. A tough stretch indeed, but if they can win all four Quad 2 games (three at home, one on the road at UCLA), they'd be 6-6 in Quad 2 and could sneak up the NET if other teams ahead of them fall off.

The Bruins (13-11, 8-5 Pac-12) have found a groove during their five-game win streak. Gonzaga would like for its West Coast rival to keep winning and remain competitive in the Pac-12 race with Arizona, WSU and Oregon. At 112th in the NET, UCLA could possibly get into the top 100 if it can steal Quad 1 wins at the Cougars (March 2) and home against the Wildcats (March 7). UCLA is 0-6 in Quad 1 but 6-1 in Quad 2 games.

Out East in the ACC, Syracuse (15-9, 6-7 ACC) can help Gonzaga if the Orange stay within the NET's top 100 (currently 90th) with a strong finish in league play. Syracuse has two Quad 1 games left at home against North Carolina (Tuesday) and at Clemson (March 5) with a few games against the ACC's basement dwellers in Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and Louisville. Along with capitalizing on a Quad 2 game against NC State on Feb. 20, the Orange have a path to finish above .500 in ACC play and stay within the top 100 of the NET.

BUBBLE WATCH

When looking at ESPN Bracketology and Bart Torvik's analytical outlook, there's potential for a lot of shakeup on the bubble over the next few weeks.

For the Bulldogs, they'll keep a close eye on Lunardi's "Last Four In" and "Last Four Byes" groups. The Last Four In includes Mississippi State, Nebraska, Ole Miss and Seton Hall, while the Last Four Byes features Boise State, TCU, Butler and Florida. Of those teams, only Florida has a higher chance of qualifying for the NCAA Tournament than Gonzaga does according to Torvik, which takes into account a team's projected finish as opposed to its current standing like some bracketology experts use to make their predictions. 

Torvik's "T-Ranketology" projects Gonzaga to earn a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament with a 2-6 record in Quad 1 games. Conversely to Lunardi, Torvik's Last Four In features Boise State, Butler, Utah and Nevada, with Wake Forest, Northwestern, Cincinnati and Ole Miss getting the last four byes. Utah and Nevada aren't on Lunardi's scope, while Torvik gives Seton Hall less than a 10% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. 

Every projection is going to be slightly different, but for the most part, there's a small group of teams to watch for as the regular season comes to a close.

WCC RACE INTENSIFIES

Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

Regarding its own league, Gonzaga has to play catch-up with first-place Saint Mary's (20-6, 11-0 WCC) along with San Francisco (20-6, 9-2 WCC), which has a half-game lead in the standings with one more win in league play.

For the sake of the NET, the Bulldogs would benefit if both the Dons and Gaels handled their business against the rest of the conference. San Francisco, ranked 64th in the NET, will play at Loyola Marymount on Saturday before a pivotal game at Saint Mary's on Feb. 20. If the Dons can steal that Quad 1 game in Moraga, the Bulldogs can still jump up in the WCC standings with a win at the Chase Center in the penultimate regular season game on Feb. 29. That would set up an epic finale between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's for possibly the right to the WCC regular season title on March 2, should the Bulldogs handle their end of the bargain too.

In a scenario that the Bulldogs beat the Gaels on the road, which would result in both atop the league standings at 14-2, the tiebreaker for first place would favor Gonzaga. Since both would finish 1-1 in head-to-head, the next tiebreaker looks at which team has the best record against the third-place team, which would be San Francisco in this case. Hypothetically the Bulldogs would've beaten the Dons twice and the Gaels would've split the season series, thus the tie going to Gonzaga.

Of course, a lot needs to happen before that can take place. The Bulldogs can't slip up on the road at LMU (Thursday) or Portland (Feb. 22) and will need to defend home court against Pacific (Saturday) and Santa Clara (Feb. 24) before that pivotal last week of the regular season. San Francisco could have a close call at Santa Clara (15-10, 6-4 WCC) to end the regular season — the Dons had to overcome a 19-point halftime deficit to the Broncos in their latest meeting on Saturday. KenPom currently gives San Francisco a 53% chance of beating Santa Clara at The Hilltop when the two meet on March 2.

The Gaels should finish strong with four of their last five games at home and their only road game being at Pepperdine on Feb. 29. They'll get their first look at the Waves at home on Thursday and will host San Diego on Feb. 24. Should Saint Mary's avoid disaster, that game against San Francisco on Feb. 20 will have a lot at stake for both teams as well as Gonzaga.

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