College Football Playoff predictions: Will Iowa State and BYU both get in?
The first season of the new 12-team College Football Playoff has created a ton of speculation.
Who will get in? Who should get in?
The first CFP Rankings will be revealed on Tuesday, and the CFP Committee has made it clear that strength of schedule will be a significant factor.
“That is a very important metric. It's not the only metric ... it’s one that cross-cuts across conferences and team schedules,” new CFP executive director Rich ClarkClark said on Wednesday. “And it gives us a look so we can compare teams more accurately based on their strength of schedule. It helps us to look at teams in a more fair manner.”
How Do The CFP Rankings Work?
The top five ranked conference champions will automatically earn berths in the CFP, with the top four receiving first-round byes. The next seven teams in the rankings will be added to the bracket as at-large teams.
The top four ranked conference champions will almost assuredly be the champions from each of the Power 4 conferences — SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. The fifth conference champion will come from the Group of Five, and will likely either be Boise State or Army.
Other than strength of schedule, here are some of the criteria the CFP Committee will use:
- Conference champions
- Record
- Head-to-head results
- Games vs. common opponents
- Results vs. common opponents
The AP Top 25 poll and Coaches Poll do not factor into the CFP rankings. At all.
Will The Big 12 Get Two Teams?
The Big 12 has two undefeated teams — Iowa State (7-0) and BYU (8-0) — and they're on a collision course to meet in the Big 12 championship game. Let's assume that happens, and Iowa State wins out, including beating BYU in the championship game. That would leave the Cyclones at 13-0 and with a first-round bye in the CFP.
If BYU finishes 12-1 — with its only loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 championship — the Cougars have a strong case for making the CFP.
The same logic applies if BYU wins out and Iowa State loses to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship.
And several experts agree.
Latest CFP Predictions
In his latest CFP Rankings predictions, CBS Sports analyst Jerry Palm has BYU at No. 6 and Iowa State at No. 9.
ESPN's Kyle Bonagura has BYU at No. 4 and Iowa State at No. 11. His colleague, ESPN's Bill Connelly, has BYU at No. 4 and Iowa State at No. 10.
There are also some experts who think the Big 12 will only get one team in, including FOX analyst Joel Klatt. His latest predictions have BYU at No. 4 and Iowa State not in the field.
It wil be interesting to see how the committee views the Big 12 when the first rankings come out on Tuesday. The poll voters haven't given the Big 12 much respect this season — but fortunately they do not matter.
More Big 12 Analysis
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.