ESPN FPI predicts Baylor Bears vs. Houston Cougars winner
After a disheartening loss to Arizona, the Houston Cougars (4-6, 3-4) are hoping to rebound this week against Baylor (6-4, 4-3).
The good news for the Cougars is they are returning home, where they've had success this season. Houston is 3-2 at TDECU Stadium, including back-to-back upset victories over Utah and Kansas State.
The bad news for Willie Fritz's team is they are facing a red-hot Baylor squad that has won four in a row and is averaging nearly 46 points during the win streak.
FPI Prediction for Houston vs. Baylor
ESPN's updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is "meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" does not like Houston's chances on Saturday. The ESPN FPI gives Houston a 26.3% chance to beat Baylor.
The FPI also predicts the Cougars will go winless the rest of the season and finish at 4-8. They need to win out to finish 6-6 and qualify for a bowl game. Here's a look at how the FPI predicts the Cougars' final two games:
- Baylor - 26.3% chance to win
- at BYU - 13.7% chance to win
The FPI gives Houston a 3.9% chance of winning out.
Houston's Offensive Struggles
The Cougars have struggled to put points on the board all season. They've been shut out twice, and are averaging just 14.0 points per game, the second-worst mark in all of Division I college football.
Houston has run the ball effectively (143 yards per game), but their passing offense is in the bottom 10 in the country (153 yards per game).
To beat Baylor, the Cougars are going to have to get explosive plays from quarterback Zeon Chriss, running back Re'Shaun Sanford II and others. In wins over TCU and Kansas State, Chriss busted loose for touchdown runs of 71 and 41 yards. In last week's 27-3 loss to Arizona his longest run was 21 yards and he was held to 3.1 yards per carry.
The Baylor at Houston Big 12 football matchup is scheduled to kick off Saturday at 6 p.m. CT and will be televised on FS1.
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.