ESPN FPI predicts Houston football vs. Kansas State winner
After stumbling to a 1-4 start to the season, Willie Fritz is hoping he's found a winning formula for his Houston football team.
The Cougars have won two of their last three games behind a punishing ground game and a stout run defense. They've also won the turnover battle in both of those victories — and he knows they'll have to win it again to have a chance to beat No. 17 Kansas State on Saturday.
"Three weeks ago we were plus-four [in the turnover battle] ... and we won the game [vs. TCU] going away," Fritz said during his weekly press conference. "The next week we were minus-four [vs. Kansas] and we lost it going away. We've got to do a great job turnover-takeaway."
Houston (3-5, 2-3) is 2-2 at home this season, with wins over Rice and Utah. The Cougars are 12.5-point home underdogs vs. Kansas State (7-1, 4-1).
FPI Predictions for Houston
ESPN's updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is "meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" does not think Houston has much of a chance to beat the heavily-favored Wildcats. The ESPN FPI gives Houston a 15.5% chance to beat Kansas State.
In fact, the FPI does not like Houston's chances to win another game this season. Here's a look at how the FPI predicts the remainder of the Cougars' Big 12 games:
- Kansas State - 15.5% chance to win
- at Arizona - 31.7%
- Baylor - 31%
- at BYU - 12.8%
Houston is the only Big 12 team that the FPI gives a 0% chance of winning out, and they have just a 2% chance of getting to six wins. The Cougars need three wins to become bowl eligible, and with unbeaten BYU looming on the road to end the season, their only path to bowl eligibility starts with a victory over Kansas State on Saturday.
The Kansas State at Houston Big 12 football matchup is scheduled to kick off Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT and will be televised on FOX.
More Houston & Big 12 Analysis
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.