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3 Bold Predictions for Illinois Basketball vs. Iowa

Jake Davis will have his day for the Illini – but so, too, will a Sandfort for the Hawkeyes

Jason Langendorf

Feb 15, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Jake Davis (15) drives the ball during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Feb 15, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Jake Davis (15) drives the ball during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
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With only three games left in what can only be described as a disappointing regular season, Illinois (17-11, 9-8 Big Ten) has to relearn how to walk before it can run. For now, forget the NCAA Tournament. These Illini need to beat Iowa (15-12, 6-10) on Tuesday in Champaign (8 p.m. CT, on FS1). Everything else is window dressing.

And that includes Saturday's program-worst defeat at the hands of No. 3 Duke. It was history, yes – and now it's in the past. If the Illini let it linger, then the rest of the season is already lost. Besides, there's not much to glean from beatdowns like that. Hit the reset button, prepare for the Hawkeyes.

And with that, we offer three bold predictions for Illinois in Tuesday's game at the State Farm Center:

3. The Illini will be torched by a Sandfort

Look, we're playing the percentages here given that senior Payton Sandfort is Iowa's leading scorer and coming off a 27-point game against Washington and brother Pryce, a sophomore, squeezed off eight points in under 16 minutes. They do not operate alone. Josh Dix had 19 against Oregon last Wednesday, Drew Thelwell had 25 against Wisconsin last month, and Brock Harding is a bucket. Worry too much about just one, then you have to worry about all of them.

Maybe that's the rationale for the Illini, who this season have given up big numbers to a series of long dynamic wings like Payton Sandfort. Even in initially slowing Cooper Flagg against Duke, Illinois was gutted by his teammates. The Sandforts aren't Flagg, and the Hawkeyes aren't the Blue Devils, but don't be surprised if the Illini stick defensive ace Kylan Boswell on Payton, play it relatively straight elsewhere and live with the results rather than risk death by 1,000 cuts from the rest of Iowa's roster.

2. Jake Davis will crack double-figures scoring

Davis has been one of the more consistent Illini in terms of filling his role on a game-to-game basis. The Blue Devils loss was his first scoreless performance in five games, though it would be fair to toss all the results from that abomination into the abyss and face forward.

That's what we expect Davis to do, especially since he figures to have a lot more room and a bit more time to square up and launch from three against Iowa. The Hawkeyes allow opponents to shoot 34.9 percent on threes, which puts them in the bottom quarter of all Division I teams in that category. And with Owen Freeman out (finger), Iowa will have to sag, double and generally make a mad, 40-minute dash to keep center Tomislav Ivisic and all of Illinois' dribble penetrators from eviscerating its interior defense.

Expect Davis to spot up on the perimeter and let fly no fewer than a half dozen threes against the Hawkeyes, which should give him the ammo to threaten the Illini career high of 12 points he set against Oregon back in January.

1. Illinois will beat Iowa – and pull off one upset in its last two

Iowa is one of the few Big Ten opponents that can match Illinois' pace, but it probably won't benefit the Hawkeyes the way it did, say, Duke. The Illini have the hosses to easily outrebound the Hawkeyes, and the lid should come off the basket for their three-point shooters against that ramshackle Iowa perimeter defense.

Stage 2 of this scenario appears a lot dicier. No. 15 Michigan – winners of seven of their past eight games – is cooking, and the Crisler Center can be a tough venue for visitors even in more favorable times. No. 20 Purdue is in a four-game tailspin and will have to face the Illini at the State Farm Center, but, y'know ... Purdue.

Yet if the Illini can take something away from the hard lessons that have been hammered into them in recent weeks and restore some of their mojo against the Hawkeyes, the Wolverines and Boilermakers suddenly become beatable. This Illinois group remains one of the most talented in the Big Ten, even if it hasn't played like it lately. There's an upset still lying around somewhere in the Illini's bag of tricks.

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Jason Langendorf
JASON LANGENDORF

Jason Langendorf has covered Illinois basketball, football and more for Illinois on SI since October 2024, and has covered Illini sports – among other subjects – for 30 years. A veteran of ESPN and Sporting News, he has published work in The Guardian, Vice, Chicago Sun-Times and many other outlets. He is currently also the U.S. editor at BoxingScene and a judge for the annual BWAA writing awards. He can be followed and reached on X and Bluesky @JasonLangendorf.

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