Big Ten NCAA Tournament First-Round Predictions: Can Illinois Keep Dancing?

With eight teams from the Big Ten making it to the NCAAs, how will the conference fare in the opening round?

Mar 14, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) blocks Maryland Terrapins guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie (0) during the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

With the NCAA Tournament officially underway Thursday morning, the Big Ten will seek to prove its mettle. But with only eight teams selected from the conference for the Big Dance – compared to 14 from the SEC – the Big Ten will need to string together a series of deep runs over the next couple of weeks to try to earn the mantle of premier college basketball conference by quality, if not quantity.

Despite the presence of Auburn (1 seed), Florida (1), Alabama (2) and Tennessee (2), among others, that scenario isn't out of the realm of possibility. One step at a time, gents. With that, here are our predictions for each Big Ten squad's first-round matchup:

No. 4 Purdue (22-11) vs. No. 13 High Point (29-5)

The pick: Purdue

High Point has no defensive match for arguably the best pick-and-roll duo in all of college basketball, Big Ten Player of the Year and Boilermakers junior guard Braden Smith and star big man Trey Kaufman-Renn.

No. 3 Wisconsin (26-9) vs. No. 14 Montana (25-9)

The pick: Wisconsin

Two high-octane offenses seemingly well-matched with one another. Don’t be surprised if the Grizzlies put up an impressive scoring total – but it still won’t be enough to get them past the Badgers.

No. 7 UCLA (22-10) vs. No. 10 Utah State (26-7)

The pick: UCLA

The Bruins rode the shoulders of their stingy defense to a fourth-place finish in the Big Ten, and they’ll continue to rely on that defense en route to a first-round victory in the tournament.

No. 5 Michigan (25-9) vs. No. 12 UC San Diego (30-4)

The pick: Michigan

UC San Diego carries an impressive 15-game winning streak into the tournament, but the Tritons haven’t crossed paths with a squad as talented as these Wolverines all season.

No. 4 Maryland (25-8) vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon (26-7)

The pick: Maryland

The Terrapins fell in a last-second buzzer beater in the semifinal of the Big Ten Tournament. Aside from that, they have looked the part of a top-10 team for the past few months. 

No. 6 Illinois (21-12) vs. No. 11 Xavier (21-11)/Texas (19-15)

The pick: Illinois

Regardless of the Illini’s opponent, their size and physicality will give them a clear upper hand against either the Musketeers or Longhorns.

Time to dance pic.twitter.com/LRQEhFrsQs

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 16, 2025

No. 2 Michigan State (27-6) vs. No. 15 Bryant (23-11)

The pick: Michigan State

Tom Izzo. Sparty. March. That is all.

No. 5 Oregon (24-9) vs. No. 12 Liberty (28-6)

The pick: Liberty

We cannot in good conscience give the Big Ten a clean sweep in the opening round, as Liberty’s well-balanced offensive attack (seven players averaging 8.8 points or more) and the Ducks' occasional raggedness figure to be enough to secure a mild but traditional 12-over-5 upset for the Flames.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Plotting Illinois Basketball's Path to a National Championship

Which Opponent Should Illinois Fans Want: Xavier or Texas?

Why The Athletic Has Illinois in the Sweet 16 – and Why the Ride Ends There