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ESPN Predicts Illinois vs. Xavier: Which Can Survive and Advance?

The Illini may be favored over the Musketeers, but ESPN's metrics aren't especially confident in their ability to pull off the win

Jackson Langendorf

Mar 13, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) goes up for a dunk during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images
Mar 13, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) goes up for a dunk during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images
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Xavier (22-11), which barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament, needed an 86-80 victory over Texas on Wednesday night just to secure the 11th seed in the Midwest region. Naturally, the Musketeers are considered an underdog against sixth-seeded Illinois (21-12) – but the margin of confidence may come as a surprise.

Given Illinois’ stellar metric rankings (17th in NET and 18th in KenPom) and Xavier’s average-at-best metrics (45th in NET and 41st in KenPom), the Illini could be expected to be fairly heavy favorites.

But the numbers have been crunched and – at least according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) Predictions – Illinois is being given (just) a 60.1 percent chance of taking down Xavier in the opening round.

Working in the Musketeers’ favor is the fact they’ve played the role of underdog quite recently. As a matter of fact, they “upset” the Longhorns on Wednesday night in their First Four matchup, after Texas was given a 53.7 percent chance of winning the matchup.

Winners of eight of their past nine, Xavier is rolling and well-positioned to put up a fight against the Illini, winners of four of their past five.

Then again, all recent trends, streaks and numbers that help explain the nuance and detail of both squads' seasons to date can practically be thrown out the window, for one reason:

It’s March.

Chaos is expected – and welcome.

But on Friday, Illinois will try to avoid being on the wrong end of another March upset, while Xavier seeks to be a beneficiary of the ever-popular 11-over-6 upset. More numbers? Hey, we can't help ourselves.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Buy or Sell: Illinois Basketball's Chances for a Deep NCAA Tournament Run

Big Ten NCAA Tournament First-Round Predictions: Can Illinois Keep Dancing?

Xavier's Sean Miller Had More to Say About Illinois Than 'I Could Care Less'

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Jackson Langendorf
JACKSON LANGENDORF

Primarily covers Illinois football and basketball, and Kansas basketball, with an emphasis on analysis, features and recruiting. Langendorf, a third-generation University of Illinois alum, has been watching Illini basketball and football for as long as he can remember. An advertising student and journalism devotee, he has been writing for On SI since October 2024. He can be followed and reached on X @jglangendorf.

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