ESPN With a Surprising Prediction for Illinois Basketball vs. Arkansas

The analytics expect the unranked Illini to take down No. 19 Arkansas on Thursday

Nov 25, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Little Rock Trojans forward Caleb Pennyfeather (10) guards Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

When two Power 4 basketball programs with the same record and similar pedigrees square off at a neutral site, the assumption is almost always that the ranked team would be favored over its unranked opponent. At most, you'd imagine, it would be a coin flip.

But on Thursday, for one Thanksgiving Day showdown – when Illinois (5-1) will take on No. 19 Arkansas (5-1) in Kansas City (3 p.m. CT, on CBS) – ESPN’s analytics had an unexpected prediction: The unranked Illini are projected to have a 67.9 percent chance of winning.

Grab the food and watch a Thanksgiving college basketball showdown between @IlliniMBB and @RazorbackMBB.

Don’t miss Illinois vs. Arkansas on Thursday at 4PM ET on @CBS and @paramountplus! pic.twitter.com/XvUIoa5B6o

— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) November 26, 2024

Kind of wild, really. In other words, ESPN's formula believes that if the Illini were to play the Razorbacks three times at a neutral site, Illinois would win twice.

And through the early stages of the season, ESPN has been quite accurate in its predictions for both squads, correctly calling the outcome of all 12 games for each.

In Illinois' lone loss, it was given a 40.1 percent chance of taking down Alabama, and ultimately fell 100-87 to the Tide in Birmingham.

As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks' winning probably against Baylor was 37.3 percent, according to ESPN, and they fell 72-67.

All five of Illinois' and Arkansas’ wins have come against mid-majors, so both were heavily favored in each. It's worth noting, though, that the Illini and Razorbacks already have two common opponents in Maryland Eastern Shore and Little Rock. And while both dominated Maryland Eastern Shore by winning deficits of more than 45, the Razorbacks had a tougher time with Little Rock (seeing they're lead cut to as little as seven in the second half before winning by 12) than the Illini did in steamrolling the Trojans 92-34.

In any case, the season has only just begun, which theoretically makes ESPN’s matchup predictor a bit less trustworthy than it may be in February and March. But if its track record through six games holds up, Illini fans will add a Top 25 win to their list of what to be thankful for this holiday weekend.

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