Illini Bracketology - ESPN's Joe Lunardi on Illinois as a 1-seed in NCAA Tournament: 'It's a lock'

ESPN bracket analysis Joe Lunardi tells Illini Now/Sports Illustrated that Illinois as a 1-seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament is "a lock"

Matthew Stevens | Mar 13, 2021

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- For the first time since 2005 and only the fourth time in program history, Illinois is more than likely to be a No. 1 seed Sunday when the NCAA tournament bracket is revealed.

The only possible scenario that still exists for Illini fans to worry about their team losing on a No. 1 seed could be a blowout loss today in the Big Ten Tournament semifinal vs. Iowa (2:30 p.m., CBS) and Alabama (22-6) completes two more blowouts wins on the road to a Southeastern Conference Tournament championship.

However, every national NCAA tournament projection expert has No. 3 Illinois as a 1-seed in the upcoming bracket.

When asked on Saturday morning by Illini Now/Sports Illustrated on the chances of the Crimson Tide stealing a No. 1 seed from the Illini, ESPN bracket analysis Joe Lunardi said Illinois as a 1-seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament is "a lock".

ESPN bracket analysis Joe Lunardi says Illinois as a 1-seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament is "a lock"

Illinois is aiming to advance to the Big Ten Tournament championship game for the first time since 2008, and win its first conference tournament title since 2005.

Illinois' NCAA tournament resume includes ranking first in Quad 1 wins (11) as well as first in combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories (16).

Illinois (21-6) is one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of five straight and 12 of its last 13. Illinois is one of only three teams ranked in the top 10 in both offensive (7th) and defensive (7th) efficiency by Kenpom.com, joined by Michigan and Houston.

Here are Illinois’ NCAA tournament resume information as of today:

NET Ranking: 4

Overall Record: 21-6, 14-4 in Big Ten Conference

Quadrant 1 Record (Home vs. 1-30; Neutral vs. 1-50; Away vs. 1-75): 11-5

Quadrant 2 Record (Home vs. 31-75; Neutral vs. 51-100; Away vs. 76-135): 5-1

Quadrant 3 Record (Home vs. 76-160; Neutral vs. 101-200; Away vs. 136-240): 3-0

Quadrant 4 Record (Home vs. 161-353; Neutral vs. 201-353; Away vs. 241-353): 2-0

Where Illini are Currently Projected According to Noteworthy Bracket Analysts:

Joe Lunardi - ESPN - Lunardi's newest bracket released Tuesday morning has Illinois as an 1-seed and the No. 4 overall seed. Therefore, the Illini would be projected to play the winner of Prairie View A&M (16-4) as they play Texas Southern in the Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament final (5 p.m., ESPNU) and Appalachian State (17-11), which won the Sun Belt Conference Tournament championship after defeating Georgia State in the tournament final 80-73 on Monday night.

Illinois has never played either of these possible first round opponents.

NOTE: The No. 2 seed in Illinois' region is Alabama and the 3-seed is Kansas, which was were forced out of the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals Friday due to positive coronavirus tests. The Kansas athletics department said in a statement they would continue preparing for the NCAA Tournament, which starts Thursday. The 8-9 matchup in Illinois' pod is Loyola (Chicago) vs. Clemson.

The Ramblers (24-4), which won the Missouri Valley Conference Sunday with a win over Drake in the final, have only played Illinois twice since 2001. Clemson last played Illinois in the 2014 National Invitational Tournament when the Tigers pulled out a 50-49 victory in front of its home fans.

The 4-seed is West Virginia, which is led by Illini coach Brad Underwood's friend and mentor Bob Huggins. Huggins is one win short of 900 career victories.

Shelby Mast - USA Today - Mast’s operation updates his bracket every morning and currently has the Illini as the No. 3 overall seed. Mast has the Illini facing Oral Roberts (16-10) in the first round as ORU won the Summit League Tournament after defeating North Dakota State 75-72 in the final on Tuesday.

The 8-9 seed matchup in Illinois' pod is Florida (14-9) vs. Virginia Tech (15-7). The last time the Illini faced Florida was in Winston Salem, N.C., during the second round of the 2000 NCAA tournament. The Gators won 93-76 in what would be Lon Kruger's last game as the Illini's head coach as he'd accept the Atlanta Hawks head coach position days later.

The last time Illini faced Virginia Tech was in Columbus, Ohio in the first round of the 2007 NCAA tournament when the 12-seed Illini blew a double-digit second-half lead to lose 54-52 to the Hokies.

Mast has the 2-seed in Illinois' region being Houston led by head coach Kelvin Sampson. The 3-seed is Kansas and the 4-seed is Florida State, which will play Georgia Tech tonight on ESPN for the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament championship.

Jerry Palm - CBS Sports - Palm released a new bracket projection Saturday morning and has Illinois as a 1-seed in Lucas Oil Stadium vs. Oral Roberts. The 8-9 matchup is Florida vs. North Carolina. The 2-seed is Alabama and the 3-seed is Kansas. The 4-seed is West Virginia.

Mike DeCourcey - Fox Sports/BTN/Sporting News - In his newest bracket projection was Friday, DeCourcey has the Illini as a 1-seed vs. the winner of Norfolk State, which plays for the MEAC Tournament championship today vs. Morgan State (ESPN2, 3 p.m. CST) and Hartford, which is currently playing UMass-Lowell for the America East Conference Tournament championship.

The only time Illinois has played Norfolk State was on Dec. 11, 2012 when the Illini won 64-44. Illinois and Hartford have never played each other.

The possible second round matchup in the 8/9 matchup is Florida vs. Saint Bonaventure (15-4). The 2-seed is Alabama. The 3-seed is Kansas and the 4-seed is Villanova.

Tim Krueger - Stadium - Krueger has Illinois as a 1-seed against the winner of a play-in game between Prairie View A&M (16-4) and Nicholls State (18-6), which will play for the Southland Conference Tournament championship against Abilene Christian (8:30 p.m., ESPN2). Illinois defeated Nicholls 78-70 in overtime to begin the 2019-20 season.

This projection matches up Underwood's Illini against 8-seed BYU (20-6) or 9-seed Virginia Tech. The 2-seed is Alabama and the 3-seed is Kansas and the 4-seed is Virginia Tech.

Published Mar 13, 2021

MATTHEW STEVENS