Illini Bracketology: Where Is Illinois Projected in NCAA Tournament?

Illinois (12-5, 8-3) is projected anywhere from a 3 to 6-seed in the 2021 NCAA tournament, which would be its first official NCAA bid since 2013.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- In the eyes of ESPN's bracket expert, No. 12 Illinois has raised its NCAA tournament profile up another seed line with the combination of its 75-71 overtime win at Indiana and No. 6 Texas' home loss to No. 2 Baylor on the same night.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi explained in his daily bracket analysis to Illini Now/Sports Illustrated that the Illini could go from the 3-seed line to the 2-seed line with that combination of results. The loss for Indiana also put them on the relative bubble for the final spot of the 2021 NCAA Tournament that will be hosted and played entirely in the Hoosiers' home state due to COVID-19 pandemic protocols. 

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Here are Illinois’ NCAA tournament resume information as of today:

NET Ranking: 5

Overall Record: 12-5, 8-3 in Big Ten

Quadrant 1 Record (Home vs. 1-30; Neutral vs. 1-50; Away vs. 1-75): 5-8

Quadrant 2 Record (Home vs. 31-75; Neutral vs. 51-100; Away vs. 76-135): 5-1

Quadrant 3 Record (Home vs. 76-160; Neutral vs. 101-200; Away vs. 136-240): 2-1

Quadrant 4 Record (Home vs. 161-353; Neutral vs. 201-353; Away vs. 241-353): 8-0 

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Where Illini are Currently Projected According to Noteworthy Bracket Analysts: 

Joe Lunardi - ESPN - Lunardi's newest bracket released Monday morning has Illinois as an 3-seed. However, Lunardi has already stressed in his daily updates that Illinois is now on the 2-seed line. Due to the committee not wanting Illinois and Rutgers to play in the second round if possible, this flip with Texas would need to be a little more complicated as Houston will likely take Texas' 2-seed spot and Illinois would take Houston's. Therefore, the Illini would be projected to play Sam Houston State (13-6, 7-1), which is currently leading the Southland Conference and has a 0-5 record against teams ranked inside the Top 100 of Ken Pomeroy's power rankings. 

NOTE: If Illinois and Houston were to swap spots in Lunardi's projection, it would be an interesting move because then the 7-10 matchup opposite of the Illini's first round matchup would include one of Underwood's former employers. 7-seed Oklahoma State, which Underwood coached into the 2017 NCAA tournament, would take on 10-seed Oregon. 

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Shelby Mast - USA Today - Mast’s operation updates his bracket every morning and currently has the Illini as a 6-seed playing Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers, which famously made the 2018 Final Four, haven't played Illinois since the Illini took a 67-49 win in Champaign on Nov. 11, 2011. Before that matchup, it was another decade before the two schools played a regular season game against each other. The 3-seed in the region is Florida State (10-3, 6-2 in ACC). 

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Jerry Palm - CBS Sports - Palm released a new bracket projection Monday morning and has Illinois as a 4-seed in Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Georgia State (8-4, 2-3 in Sun Belt). The interesting thing here is Illinois may have Oklahoma State, again...Underwoood's most recent former employer, as a possible second round matchup. 

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Mike DeCourcey - Fox Sports/BTN/Sporting News - In his first bracket projection of February, DeCourcey has the Illini as a 4-seed vs. Toledo (16-4, 11-1 in Mid-American Conference). The Illini have only played Toledo two times since 1950 and the last time resulted in a 84-45 victory for Illinois on Nov. 10, 2010. The possible second round matchup in the 5/12 matchup is 5-seed Texas Tech vs. the First Four winner of Georgia Tech & Utah State. 

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Tim Krueger - Stadium - Krueger has Illinois as a 3-seed against Siena (8-2) in what would be the Saints' first non-conference matchup as MAAC schools declined to be games outside of its conference during the 2020-21 season due to COVID-19 epidemic concerns. This projections is very interesting because it potentially matches up Underwood's Illini against his coaching mentor and friend Bob Huggins as West Virginia as a 6-seed playing the First Four winner of Colorado State and Virginia Commonwealth. Underwood is 1-0 in the NCAA tournament against Huggins after his 14-seed Stephen F. Austin squad defeated 3-seed West Virginia 70-54 in the 2016 first round matchup. 

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