Illini Bracketology: Illinois is Projected in NCAA Tournament as a 1-seed

Practically every national NCAA tournament projection expert has No. 4 Illinois as a 1-seed in the upcoming bracket.

Matthew Stevens | Mar 3, 2021

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- Practically every NCAA tournament projection expert has No. 5 Illinois as a 1-seed in the upcoming bracket.

Illinois, which recorded its highest ranked road win in program history tonight at No. 2 Michigan, is obviously still on pace to end an eight-year absence from the NCAA tournament in a big way.

Illinois has now won five games this season against ranked teams in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, its most in a season since 2005. Illinois has now won 10 of its last 11 games, including three straight wins in the last six days and back-to-back road wins against top-25 opponents (at #23 Wisconsin, at #2 Michigan).

Illinois has nine Quad 1 wins, most in the NCAA and is 8-3 on the road this season, including wins at Duke, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The Illini’s eight road wins are most among high-major conference teams.

Illinois was fourth in the current NET rankings, and is now 15-4 in the Big Ten, tied for its most Big Ten wins in program history. The school record of 15 league victories was set in 1984 (15-3, co-champions) and equaled in 2005 (15-1, champions).

Here are Illinois’ NCAA tournament resume information as of today:

NET Ranking: 4

Overall Record: 19-6, 14-4 in Big Ten Conference

Quadrant 1 Record (Home vs. 1-30; Neutral vs. 1-50; Away vs. 1-75): 9-6

Quadrant 2 Record (Home vs. 31-75; Neutral vs. 51-100; Away vs. 76-135): 5-0

Quadrant 3 Record (Home vs. 76-160; Neutral vs. 101-200; Away vs. 136-240): 3-0

Quadrant 4 Record (Home vs. 161-353; Neutral vs. 201-353; Away vs. 241-353): 2-0

Where Illini are Currently Projected According to Noteworthy Bracket Analysts:

Joe Lunardi - ESPN - Lunardi's newest bracket released Tuesday morning has Illinois as an 1-seed and the No. 4 overall seed. Therefore, the Illini would be projected to play the winner of Bryant (14-5, 10-4 in Northeast Conference) and Nicholls (16-6, 13-2 in Southland Conference).

Illinois defeated Nicholls 78-70 in overtime to begin the 2019-20 season. The Illini have never played Bryant.

NOTE: The No. 2 seed in Illinois' region is Alabama, which is leading the Southeastern Conference, and the 3-seed is West Virginia, which is led by Illini coach Brad Underwood's friend and mentor Bob Huggins. The 8-9 matchup in Illinois' pod is San Diego State vs. Louisiana State. San Diego State is led by head coach Brian Dutcher, who was the Michigan assistant coach when the Wolverines won the 1989 NCAA tournament national semifinal game. LSU hasn't played Illinois since 1990 when Shaquille O'Neal arrived in Champaign on Dec. 22.

Shelby Mast - USA Today - Mast’s operation updates his bracket every morning and currently has the Illini as the No. 3 overall seed, one spot ahead of Michigan. Mast has the Illini playing Texas State (18-6, 12-3 in Sun Belt Conference) led by interim head coach Terrence “TJ” Johnson. The 8-9 seed matchup in Illinois' pod is UCLA (17-6, 13-4 in Pac-12 Conference), which is leading Pac-12 Conference, vs. North Carolina (15-9, 9-6 in Atlantic Coast Conference).

Jerry Palm - CBS Sports - Palm released a new bracket projection Wednesday morning and has Illinois as a 1-seed in Lucas Oil Stadium vs. Texas State. The 8-9 matchup is Louisville (13-5, 8-4 in ACC) and No. 24 Colorado (19-7, 13-6 in Pac-12 Conference). The 2-seed is West Virginia and the 3-seed is Florida State.

Mike DeCourcey - Fox Sports/BTN/Sporting News - In his newest bracket projection of March, DeCourcey has the Illini as a 1-seed vs. Bryant. The possible second round matchup in the 8/9 matchup is Virginia Tech vs. Maryland. Maryland defeated the Illini 66-63 in State Farm Center on Jan. 10. The last time Illinois faced Virginia Tech was in the first round of the 2007 NCAA tournament when the 12-seed Illini blew a late lead to lose to the 5-seed Hokies 54-52.

Tim Krueger - Stadium - Krueger has Illinois as a 1-seed against Grand Canyon (14-5, 8-2 in Western Athletic Conference). The Illini played at Grand Canyon last year but that was before the Antelopes made the coaching change from Dan Majerle to Bryce Drew. This projection is interesting because it potentially matches up Underwood's Illini against 8-seed San Diego State or 9-seed Loyola (Chicago) as the No. 22 Ramblers (21-4, 16-2 in Missouri Valley Conference) have only played Illinois twice since 2001. The 2-seed is Alabama and the 3-seed is Oklahoma State, which would be the first matchup of Oklahoma State since Brad Underwood left the Cowboys program after one season to take the Illini program.

Published Mar 3, 2021

MATTHEW STEVENS