Which Opponent Should Illinois Fans Want: Xavier or Texas?

Even if the Illini won't admit a preference, one play-in opponent would seem to be a more favorable matchup than the other

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood watches the action Friday, March 14, 2025, in a quarterfinals game at the 2025 TIAA Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament between the Maryland Terrapins and the Illinois Fighting Illini at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. / Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the first step of Illinois’ NCAA Tournament path having finally been revealed Sunday night, a collective sigh of relief around the team was uttered when the Illini were listed as a 6 seed.

But there is a potential drawback to landing a sixth seed rather than a seven or eight (which some bracketologists had projected for Illinois). Now, rather than immediately diving into game-planning for a specific opponent, the Illini are forced to divide their preparations and await the winner of a First Four contest.

Time to dance pic.twitter.com/LRQEhFrsQs

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 16, 2025

Not until late Wednesday night, when Xavier and Texas duke it out for the 11th seed in Dayton, Ohio, will coach Brad Underwood, his staff and the Illini know exactly whom they're getting ready for.

Naturally, with a pair of well-matched teams in Xavier and Texas facing off for the rights to take on Illinois, a question arises:

Which one should Illini fans be “rooting” for?

Although Illinois has what appears to be decisive advantages over both potential foes, it would be naive to think the one isn't at least a slightly more favorable matchup than the other.

So let's take a deep dive into each club and make a pick: Which team – Texas or Xavier – should Illinois “hope” prevails on Wednesday?

Xavier

Metrics

KenPom: No. 43 overall (No. 52 offensive, No. 44 defense)

NET: No. 45

Biggest strength

Xavier’s three-point percentage of 38.8 percent is the seventh-highest in the country, and it would rank as the best of any squad Illinois has faced this season. Given the Illini’s well-known late-season struggles defending the three-point line, the Musketeers’ marksmanship would be quite the unwelcome sight.

Star player

Zach Freemantle, a 6-foot-9 forward, leads the Musketeers in scoring (17.3 per game) and rebounding (7.1). Although he has shown the ability to step out beyond the arc (28 made threes), Freemantle shoots just 30.8 percent from deep and prefers to take his shots at opponents' interior defense.

Texas 

Metrics

KenPom: No. 44 overall (No. 37 offense, No. 57 defense)

NET: No. 39

Biggest strength

The Longhorns commit just 9.9 turnovers per game, ranking among the top 30 in the NCAA in the category. Meanwhile, the Illini turn opponents over at a decidedly low rate (Maryland had just three turnovers in its beatdown of Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament), meaning it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Texas were able to keep things close simply by creating more possessions for itself than the Illini.

Star player

In a historically loaded freshman class, Tre Johnson has been one of college basketball's premier talents. Scoring 19.8 points per game and averaging 2.7 threes on an efficient 39.2 percent from long range, Johnson is one of the purest shooters and finest scorers in the country, regardless of class. At 6-foot-6, he is a lengthy and dynamic wing – or, in other words, the exact kind of player that the Illini have struggled against much of the season.

The pick: Xavier

Although the Musketeers’ three-point-shooting prowess may wake Underwood from his sleep in a cold sweat, the next-level scoring ability of Johnson and the Longhorns’ all-around offensive potency may ensure the Illini coach never gets so much as a wink of slumber. If Xavier wins Wednesday, Illinois’ size and athleticism advantage would have it well-positioned to dominate the boards, clog up the paint and even perhaps run the Musketeers off the three-point line en route to a first-round victory.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Basketball's NCAA Tournament Seed and Matchup Revealed

Plotting Illinois Basketball's Path to a National Championship

ESPN's Seth Greenberg: Illinois Capable of a Deep NCAA Tournament Run