No. 21 Illinois at Purdue: Three In The Key Preview & Prediction
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. -- It now has a name. Roadkill.
After earning a Big Ten road win, and arguably one of the more impressive conference road wins of the 2019-20 season, Illinois players, specifically Ayo Dosunmu, defined it following a 71-70 win at Wisconsin with one word: roadkill.
Illinois (13-5, 5-2), which has been rolling through four straight wins and two consecutive weeks with a national ranking for the first time since the 2012-13 season, looks to pick up another roadkill Tuesday night but this is a much different animal in a lot of different ways.
Purdue (10-8, 3-4) has won six straight games at Mackey Arena against nationally-ranked teams. The Boilermakers have won 15 straight Big Ten home games, dating to Feb. 2018 and just three of the 15 wins have come by single digits. With a full Paint Crew student section expected in attendance, Purdue is 64-3 in the last 67 games in Mackey Arena. Since the start of the 2014-15 season, Purdue has allowed just four opponents to shoot at least 50.0 percent from the field in West Lafayette. In short, Purdue is a different team inside its home arena and the Illinois players know it.
“We're going for another roadkill,” Dosunmu said Monday. “Besides us and the Illini family, I feel like everyone expects us to lose and that's fine."
Illinois has only been an easy out for two home teams this season (at Arizona and at Michigan State) as they have a last-second loss at Maryland and the win against Wisconsin as road experiences to draw on for the final two-month stretch of conference play.
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Game 19: No. 21 Illinois at Purdue
Date/Time/Place: Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2020: 6 p.m. CST, Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, Indiana
Capacity: 14,804
Records: Illinois 13-5, 5-2 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Purdue 10-8, 3-4 in Big Ten; 26-10, 16-4 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.
Line: Purdue by 6
Series notes: Purdue owns a 102-88 series advantage with Illinois, including a 17-8 record under Matt Painter. The Illini won 63-37 in the previous meeting between the two teams, just 16 days ago in Champaign. Illinois' win snapped a four-game winning streak for Purdue in the series. The Illini are also looking to snap a seven-game skid in West Lafayette spanning 11-plus years. Illinois’ last victory at Mackey Arena was a 71-67 overtime win in the opener of the 2008-2009 season (Dec. 30, 2008). Purdue-Illinois is of the most competitive series in Purdue school history, as Purdue has outscored the Illini by just 44 points over the 190 games (0.23 points per game).
TV: ESPNU - Dave Flemming (PBP), Dan Dakich (analyst), Molly McGrath (Sideline)
Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 385 and at FightingIllini.com.
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Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after the tip.
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1) Who wins on near the glass and the rim?
Illinois and Purdue play one of the biggest frontcourt lineups in the Big Ten Conference and with both of them struggling to make perimeter shots consistently, the easiest form of offense for both sides could be getting the basketball off the rim.
The last time the two teams played, Illinois dominated the glass by a 46-34 advantage. It matched Purdue's worst rebound margin since Jan. 24, 2015 vs. Iowa (-15). Illinois is third nationally in rebound margin.
Illinois has outrebounded its opponent in 13 of 18 games, and nine times by double digits. The Illini ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebound percentage (37.5%) and is scoring 12.6 second-chance points per game.
Illinois freshman center Kofi Cockburn ranks 40th in the NCAA in rebounding – and No. 4 among freshmen – averaging 9.5 rebounds per game. Ayo Dosunmu is averaging 5.6 rebounds over the last 10 games after collecting 1.7 rebounds per game the previous seven games. In its previous meeting this season, Alan Griffin was the best player on the floor mostly by grabbing a career-high 12 rebounds and he's a key to Illinois' ability to extend possessions by crashing the glass among bigger bodies. In the win in Champaign, Illinois got baskets on each of its first five extra opportunities.
Purdue is 8-2 this year 124-13 under Matt Painter when winning both the rebound and turnover battles.
2) Can Illinois get out in transition?
The Illini (13-5, 5-2 in Big Ten Conference) get 30.3 percent of field goal attempts in transition. In its win over the Boilermakers in State Farm Center two weeks ago, this statistical category wasn't much of a factor but it likely will need to be for the Illini on the road. In the Kohl Center, Illinois got 13 fast break points and nine points off Wisconsin turnovers to escape with a 71-70 win in Madison. In its last five games inside Mackey Arena, Purdue has earned an average of 8.8 points per game off its turnovers and that four-point difference in a game between two of the lowest-scoring teams in Big Ten play is a world of difference. Dosunmu has averaged only 7.5 points per game in two matchups vs. Purdue including being held to nine last year in West Lafayette. If Illinois can't get easy shots at the rim in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (which statistics show they get 25 percent of their shot attempts from), then it could be a long night in West Lafayette and the 16th straight Big Ten home win for Purdue.
3) Kofi Cockburn has to come up big on both ends
You probably noticed but the Illinois center didn't win Freshman of the Week this past Monday and it wasn't an oversight. Underwood has been consistent that the 7-foot, 290-pound center missed at least four dunk opportunities that could've resulted in a much easier win over Northwestern Saturday. It was clear that Illinois' perimeter threat could be enough to handle a young and offensively-challenged Northwestern team inside State Farm Center. In short, Kofi Cockburn could be average to below average and Illinois could still win. This is not the case tonight. Cockburn must be dominant inside the paint when he gets post touches and offensive rebounds and he must neutralize his matchup against 270-pound Trevion Williams. Williams is one of six players nationally to avg 15 points, 10 rebounds and two assists in league play. He also four double-doubles in the last nine games including a 16-7 effort in a blowout win over Michigan State. And Cockburn must do all of this while staying out of foul trouble, which has become increasingly difficult for him in his last two road contests.
If Illinois is to stop this homecourt winning streak by Purdue, Cockburn has to be everything he was hyped to be before the calendar flipped to 2020.
Prediction: Illinois 72, Purdue 70 - On a neutral court, this game would be an easy pick for the Illini but at Mackey Arena, Purdue is simply a more connected and more efficient offensive team and the Las Vegas line shows this. However, I'm not sure this Purdue roster, with all of its limitations, can survive a Big Ten slate without a home loss. Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter is correct when he says this team must find a way to bring an optimal effort level every night they take the floor regardless of where the game is played. And without a go-to offensive threat like Carsen Edwards was last season, that can be emotionally and physically draining. Illinois has proved already it can steal a road win in a historically difficult place (Kohl Center in Madison) and I think they end this more-than impressive streak of Big Ten home wins.