Why Illinois Basketball Is Strangely Sinking in KenPom Rankings

Despite a close loss to No. 1 Tennessee and a win over rival Missouri, the Illini slipped in a key metrics-based ranking

Dec 14, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) grabs a rebound during the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

About two weeks ago, Illinois was fresh off a bounce-back win over then-No. 20 Wisconsin and sitting at 7-2 (1-1 Big Ten).

Even considering the previous Friday’s overtime loss to Northwestern – which hadn’t won a high-major game at that point – and the fact that Illinois had dropped out of the AP Top 25 poll, the Illini were still well-respected by the metrics, landing at No. 15 in the KenPom rankings.

Fast forward to present day, after the Illini have played two more games. A heart-breaking two-point home loss to No. 1 Tennessee and a commendable 80-77 neutral-site win over a 10-2 Missouri squad in St. Louis.

Still braggin' 🏆#Illini | #HTTO | #EveryDayGuys pic.twitter.com/jS70685xfF

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) December 22, 2024

Naturally, one would think 40 competitive minutes against the top team in the country and a victory over a high-quality SEC team (especially in a rivalry game) would boost not only Illinois' reputation but also its standing in metrics such as KenPom.

Actually, the opposite was the case.

In fact, Illinois dropped all the way to No. 23 – no longer even among the top five in the Big Ten (Maryland, Oregon, Michigan State, UCLA, and Michigan are all ranked above).

Even more surprising, this came during a time when the Illini’s defensive efficiency actually climbed, from 17th all the way up to 11th over the past two weeks.

The issue, as has been the case all season, lies on the other end of the floor.

Over that two-week stretch, Illinois’ offensive efficiency has fallen from 25th to 37th. Given that KenPom’s metrics use a combination of data from the box score and play-by-play, it's likely that Illinois’ KenPom offensive efficiency has continued to falter due to its combined 40-for-108 shooting (37.0 percent) against Tennessee and Missouri.

It’s important to note that it is only late December and Illinois has played just two conference games, which means two things: 1) KenPom isn’t working with a great deal of data just yet, and 2) the Illini will get a boatload of opportunities to prove themselves moving forward.

And those opportunities are coming sooner rather than later, as Illinois gets its last tune-up game of the season against Chicago State on Sunday before diving head-first into conference play and kicking the New Year off with a matchup against No. 9 Oregon in Eugene on January 2.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

3 Big Takeaways From Illinois Basketball's Rivalry Win Against Missouri

Illinois Basketball Outlasts Missouri to Win a Braggin' Rights Banger

Illinois Basketball Report Card: Grades vs. Missouri (Game 11)