Illinois Basketball Lands in Mike DeCourcy's First NCAA Tournament Projections

Fox Sports' basketball expert pegs the Illini featured as a No. 6 seed in the South Region

Dec 6, 2024; Evanston, Illinois, USA; The Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate a three point basket against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images / David Banks-Imagn Images

With 10 newcomers and just two returning scholarship players returning from last season – Ty Rodgers (now redshirting) and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (7.1 minutes per game) – this Illinois squad came into 2024-25 surrounded by questions. Only one thing seemed certain: The Illini would look much different than they did a year ago.

And through 11 games, that has absolutely been the case. With Marcus Domask gone, Booty Ball has been mothballed. With Terrence Shannon Jr. no longer around, Illinois' transition attack is practically non-existent.

On the other hand, the newcomers have instantly turned the Illini into a dominant rebounding and defensive outfit. Also: You don't see much one-on-one basketball in Champaign anymore. This team practically lives to pick-and-roll.

So some of the offseason questions have been answered. Others remain.

In any case, if you look at No. 24 Illinois strictly through a single lens – and it's the view that happens to be the most important one: the NCAA Tournament projection – then none of those smaller details means much.

All that really matters are the Illini's wins and losses – and against whom they came.

And, currently, Illinois sits at 8-3 (1-1 Big Ten), which is good for a No. 6 seed in the South Region and a matchup with Texas, according to Fox College Hoops’ Mike DeCourcy.

The first bracket forecast from @tsnmike is HERE! 🙌

What do you think? pic.twitter.com/6mkcTBVrws

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) December 27, 2024

So far, Illinois has two wins against tournament teams (No. 8 seed Wisconsin and No. 11 seed Arkansas) and a win over 10-2 Missouri (currently listed among the first four out of the NCAAs).

As for the Illini’s three losses:

Tennessee is a No. 1 seed.

Alabama is a No. 2 seed.

And Northwestern? Well, that defeat is the worst on record for the Illini this season, but it was an overtime loss on the road against an in-state rival who happens to be sitting alongside Missouri in the “first four out."

Is your team on the bubble? 👀 👑 pic.twitter.com/XGjDAv11TV

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) December 27, 2024

Based simply on Illinois’ wins and losses, a projected No. 6 seed makes sense.

Taking a look at Illinois' AP poll slotting (No. 24), a sixth seed is logical.

Even the metrics agree, for the most part, with KenPom rating the Illini at No. 23 and the NET ranking going a bit higher on them (No. 14).

If a No. 6 seed feels a bit anticlimactic to Illini fans, keep in mind that Illinois will have opportunity after opportunity on the docket to boost its postseason stock. First, it's Oregon (a projected No. 1 seed by DeCourcy) in Eugene on January 2, and then it’s a seemingly endless schedule of Big Ten foes that offer the Illini chances to build their tournament résumé.

In fact, DeCourcy’s bracket includes eight other teams from the conference, and – lo and behold – the Illini play all eight of them. And if that weren't enough, Illinois has another enormous opportunity in a non-conference matchup with Duke (a No. 2 seed according to DeCourcy) in late February.

Other Big Ten teams in DeCourcy’s bracket, in addition to Illinois and Oregon: Maryland (No. 4 seed), Michigan State (No. 4), Purdue (No. 5), UCLA (No. 7), Wisconsin (No. 8), Ohio State (No. 9) and Michigan (No. 11).

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Why the Best May Be Yet to Come for Illinois Basketball's Kylan Boswell

Illinois Basketball Report Card: Grades vs. Missouri (Game 11)

How to Watch: Illinois Basketball vs. Chicago State (Game 12)