Illinois Basketball vs. Northwestern: Odds, Trends and Prediction

The Illini are 3½-point favorites in their Big Ten opener at Welsh-Ryan Arena

Nov 22, 2024; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats forward Nick Martinelli (2) shoots over Pepperdine Waves forward Boubacar Coulibaly (12) during the second half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images / David Banks-Imagn Images

One year ago, Illinois destroyed Northwestern by 30 points in Champaign only to lose the rematch a mere 22 days later in Evanston. Home vs. road is one thing, but that was a hell of a swing.

Both teams turned out to be pretty good, of course. The Wildcats, leaning heavily on career scoring leader Boo Buie, got back to the NCAA Tournament, still a rarity in that program. The Illini, riding a weeks-long scoring binge by Terrence Shannon Jr., won the Big Ten tournament and reached the Elite Eight.

This Northwestern team, sitting at 6-3 (0-1 Big Ten), has a lot in common with that one. Brooks Barnhizer, Ty Berry, Nick Martinelli and Matthew Nicholson all are still around.

It's Illinois that's completely different. Brand-new roster, brand-new excitement, brand-new expectations. The 19th-ranked Illini (6-1, 0-0) will take the court Friday (8 p.m. CT, Big Ten Network) at Welsh-Ryan Arena – a tough place to win, by the way – firmly believing their ceiling is as high as coach Brad Underwood promises it is.

1️⃣9️⃣#Illini | #HTTO | #EveryDayGuys pic.twitter.com/AUGXRrGWyZ

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) December 2, 2024

I-L-L … O-O-O: The "O" has it for this team, whose offense has been brilliant fun for the most part. It's ranked 10th nationally in scoring (89.1 points per game), seventh in three-pointers made (11.9 per game) and second in scoring margin (27.7 points per game). But wait, doesn't scoring margin also involve defense? The Illini are giving up 61.4 on average, good for 23rd. That ain't bad at all, folks.

And then there's Northwestern: The Wildcats don't score much (73.3, tied for 234th). They're good, but not yet all they can be, at the defensive end (64.4, tied for 47th). Losing at Iowa on a 30-foot buzzer beater was brutal luck in the end, but it was an 80-79 game. The higher the pace, the less it would seem to favor the Cats.

Highlights from Illinois' 90-77 victory over No. 19 Arkansas.#Illini | #HTTO | #EveryDayGuys pic.twitter.com/FCYvmRVDai

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) November 29, 2024

Series trends: Illinois has won eight of its past 10 games against Northwestern – each time as the betting favorite – but is only 3-7 against the spread in those games. The Cats have covered the last three times the teams have played in Evanston and won the last two meetings there outright.

ATS, total trends: Illinois is 5-2 against the spread this season and has covered three games in a row. Northwestern is 4-7 against the spread but has covered its last two games. Four of seven Illini games have gone under. Again, their defense has (mostly) held up its end of the deal.

The picks: Illinois and the over.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illini Kasparas Jakucionis, Will Riley Climb in Jonathan Wasserman's Mock Draft

Illinois Basketball Makes Impression in NCAA's Initial NET Rankings

How to Watch: Illinois Basketball at Northwestern (Game 8)