Behind Its Offense, Illinois Basketball Climbs the KenPom Rankings

Brief as it may have been, a perimeter-shooting burst from the Illini sparked a major move up the ladder

Jan 2, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) runs a fast break against the Oregon Ducks during the second half at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Riding a four-game winning streak – including two big conference road wins against then-No. 9 Oregon and Washington – Illinois (11-3, 3-1 Big Ten) shot up to No. 13 in the AP Poll and fourth place in the early Big Ten standings this week.

Over that same stretch, Illinois has soared in most metrics-based rankings – including in the KenPom rankings. 

After a Dec. 22 win over Missouri, the Illini dropped all the way to 23rd in KenPom – their lowest ranking since the preseason – in large part due to the poor shooting percentages they put up against the Tigers and in a one-point loss to No. 1 Tennessee in their previous game.

At that point, Illinois' offensive efficiency had sunk to 37th in the country, while its defense – which checked in at an excellent 11th in the nation in efficiency – was keeping its overall ranking afloat.

Three games later, Illinois has moved all the way up to 11th overall in KenPom. Ironically, the defense has actually faltered just a bit during that stretch, dropping from 11th to 13th. That could mean only one thing: the offense must have stepped up.

It was exactly how much Illinois' offensive efficiency improved – from 37th to 19th – that was the shocker.

KenPom’s rankings are calculated using box score and play-by-play data, while considering other circumstances (strength of schedule, game site, etc.), meaning Illinois’ recent hot shooting – even taking into account the poor showing from the perimeter against Washington – played a large role in the leap for the Illini.

Going a combined 31-for-62 on threes (50.0 percent) over two games should lead to a serious bump in a typical team's offensive efficiency at this stage of the season – and Illinois indeed put up those numbers in a back-to-back against Oregon and Chicago State.

From the corner 🚀 @IlliniMBB pic.twitter.com/qLXL3aDZD5

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) January 3, 2025

And although the Illini followed with a 5-for-26 (19.2 percent) shooting performance on threes against the Huskies, their 26-for-40 (65.0 percent) shooting inside the arc at least helped offset the damage done by their long-distance clanking. 

As always, it’s important to remember context – it’s still just early January, and none of the metrics fully deliver on their intent until the NCAA Tournament rolls around.

In the meantime, more opportunity awaits to sharpen up for March and keep building its tournament résumé, starting with Wednesday’s home matchup with Penn State at the State Farm Center in Champaign (8 p.m. CT, on Big Ten Network). 

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Coach Brad Underwood Reacts to One 'Bonehead' Play vs. Washington

Illinois Basketball Rockets Up the Rankings in AP Top 25 Poll

Illinois Basketball's Big Week Earns High Praise From NCAA's Andy Katz