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Illinois Basketball vs. Missouri: Odds, Trends and Prediction

The Illini are 2½-point favorites against the rival Tigers in the annual Braggin' Rights game in St. Louis

Steven Greenberg

Dec 14, 2024; Columbia, Missouri, USA; The Missouri Tigers mascot Truman performs during the second half of the game against the LIU Sharks at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Dec 14, 2024; Columbia, Missouri, USA; The Missouri Tigers mascot Truman performs during the second half of the game against the LIU Sharks at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images
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One thing we know for sure is that Illinois is better than Missouri at basketball.

Unless, you know, it's the other way around.

There's really only one way to settle it: the annual Braggin' Rights game. Yes, it's that time again, people, with the Illini (7-3, 1-1 Big Ten) and the Tigers (10-1, 0-0 SEC) set to go at it Sunday in St. Louis at noon CST on ESPN.



The Illini are 2½-point favorites. The over/under is 154½.

Neither team is ranked – Illinois has an 11-6 record in the annual rivalry series when that's the case – but both are among "others receiving votes" in the AP poll, in which the Illini are 28th overall and the Tigers are 30th. The Illini won last year's game 97-73 and lead the series 34-20.

The winning team at Enterprise Center has a great chance to move into next week's Top 25.

Where to put your money on this one? Read on.

MIA Illini: Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic is coming off his first bad offensive week; he was subpar in the scoring department in a win against Wisconsin and a no-show in a last-second loss to No. 1-ranked Tennessee. He needs to reintroduce himself as a major name to watch, as does freshman Will Riley, who's averaging a mere 8.0 points since Thanksgiving.

Crouching Tigers? Maybe Mizzou really is terrific and the Illini will learn the hard way. After all, this is a Tigers team that beat then-No. 1 Kansas 76-67 on Dec. 8. But it's also a team that has played 10 times, going 10-0, on its home floor. Other than Kansas and California, the opponents at Mizzou Arena have been nothing worth talking about. The only true road game was an 83-75 loss at Memphis, and there have been no neutral games.

Missouri is shooting 52 percent from the field – second-best in the nation – and harrassing opponents into turnovers at an extremely high rate.

A talented roster includes Duke transfer Mark Mitchell, former Indiana guard Tamar Bates and long, athletic Anthony Robinson II. The team's best shooter, Caleb Grill, might not play.

Series trends: Before winning last year's game, Illinois was in a 1-4 stretch in the Braggin' Rights series (though prior to that, it won five in a row). Four straight games in this series have gone over, and each was a blowout, with the winner easily covering.

ATS, total trends: Illinois is 5-5 against the spread. Despite its nice-looking record, Missouri is 4-7 against the spread. Six of 10 Illini games have gone under, but seven of 11 Tigers games have.

The picks: Illinois is favored by 2½, with a total of 154½. We're going with Illinois and the over.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Basketball vs. Missouri Key Matchup: Tre White vs. Mark Mitchell

Illinois Basketball Holds Strong in Andy Katz's Power 37 Rankings

3 Big Questions for Illinois Basketball vs. Missouri

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Steven Greenberg
STEVEN GREENBERG

Steve Greenberg, a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, has written about college sports since the early 1990s.

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