Illinois at Northwestern: Three In The Key Preview & Prediction

Illinois (18-9, 10-6 in Big Ten Conference) will travel to Evanston to face a Northwestern (6-20, 1-15) team on a 11-game losing streak.

EVANSTON, Ill. -- By all accounts, Illinois will be facing a very different Northwestern team tonight than the one they saw in mid-January. 

In the Illini's 75-71 win on Jan. 18 at State Farm Center, Northwestern was without freshman guard Boo Buie due to what the school is calling a lower body injury. Buie is a player who ranks fifth among Big Ten rookies with 10.5 points per game and is one of three first years to average double figures with at least 2.0 assists per game.

For a Northwestern team that made only 8 of 19 shots from beyond the three-point arc in Champaign, Buie brings a perimeter threat by being one of four Big Ten players to make five or more threes in multiple conference games this season. Buie scored 19 points against Rutgers on 2/9/20 (the most he has tallied in a single game since the injury). In his last three games before the injury, Buie averaged 21.7 points, 5.3 assists, 30.3 minutes, while shooting 53.5% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. 

"Buie is in the lineup and he’s an extremely athletic guard that can really do it and hurts you in three different ways: With a ball screen, without a ball screen because he is creative with the ball and he has deep range,” Illinois head coach Brad Underwood said. “He’s a guy that plays with a burst of speed and that gives them an opportunity to beat a defender and spread the ball to shooters and that is good for them.”

Illinois (18-9, 10-6 in Big Ten) leads the league in scoring defense during conference play, allowing just 62.8 points per game. Over the last two games the Illini defense has allowed 57.5 points on 39.1% from the field and 26.5% from three-point range.

“This time of year is to bring to the dance with what brought you and that is defense and rebounding,” Underwood said. “When the ball goes in, it is perfect world, but some times it doesn’t and that is something we are getting ready for. It is continuing to get better. Fatigue and tired is for someone else. We haven’t reached our peak and we are still trying to find it. It is about continuing in areas.”

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Game 28: Illinois at Northwestern

Date/Time/Place: Thursday, Feb. 27, 2020: 7 p.m. CST, Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, Ill.

Capacity: 7,039

Records: Illinois 18-9, 10-6 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Northwestern 6-20, 1-15 in Big Ten; 13-19, 4-16 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.

Line: Illinois by 6

Series Notes: Illinois leads the all-time series, 137-42. Northwestern has won two straight home games over the Illini, including a 72-68 overtime win at Allstate Arena (12/1/17) and a 68-66 victory at Welsh-Ryan Arena last season (1/6/19). The Wildcats are looking for their first three-game home winning streak against Illinois since 1966-68. The previous five matchups between the two schools have been decided by an average of four points. 

TV: BTN - Dave Revsine (PBP), Andy Katz (Analyst)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 383 and at FightingIllini.com.

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Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after the tip.

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1) Can Illinois find offensive perimeter success? 

Illinois shot 50% (27-for-54) in the game in the Jan. 18 matchup in Champaign, the highest mark by a Big Ten opponent against Northwestern this season.  In a year where Illinois had been relying on defense and rebounding to pick up hard-fought wins, the Illini rode its offense to victory against the Wildcats earlier this season. The Illini scored 1.22 points-per-possession, its best number at that point in the season against a high-major opponent. One of the highlighted offensive notes was Giorgi Bezhanishvili having 13 points on 6-of-9 shooting. Can Illinois replicate this offensive rythm away from home, where they've actually looked better at several times this season?

2) How does Illinois' four-guard lineup match up with Northwestern's big lineup? 

Northwestern owns one of the biggest lineups in the Big Ten Conference and will not get shaken by the size of Illinois' frontcourt. Wildcats center Ryan Young has burst onto the scene in his first season of college basketball and it may be a matchup of the two best freshman bigs in the league. Young is one of two rookies in the Big Ten and one of seven in Power 5 Conferences to average nine or more points and more than six rebounds per game, while shooting at least 55% from the field. The other one is clearly Kofi Cockburn. Over the last four games, Cockburn is averaging 12.5 points and 8.8 rebounds shooting 51.4% from the field. This follows a two-game stretch where he averaged just 7.5 points and 5.0 rebounds on 27.3% shooting.

Illinois guard Ayo Dosunmu (11) goes to the basket as Northwestern center Dererk Pardon (5) defends him during the second half in the Big Ten conference tournament at United Center :: David Banks/USA TODAY Sports

3) Is this Ayo's last college game in the Chicagoland area?

We're not 100 percent sure if Ayo Dosunmu is destined for the NBA draft this coming summer but it seems more and more likely this being the case. If it is, then this game at Welsh-Ryan will be his last game in the Chicagoland area. it doesn't seem to matter as the Dosunmu family tends to travel to watch No. 11 in action no matter where the Illini play but the group may actually be bigger tonight as they tip this one just 34 miles south on Interstate 90 from Morgan Park High School.

Will the competitiveness of Dosunmu and his ability to seemingly put on a show when given the opportunity be on tap tonight in front potentially more friends and family in his home city of Chicago? Based on Dosunmu's makeup, the answer is likely yes. 

Dosunmu was named Big Ten Player of the Week on Monday. He earned the honor after scoring a game-high 24 points in the win at No. 9 Penn State, marking Illinois’ first Big Ten road win over a top-10 team since 2008. Dosunmu returned to the lineup after missing the previous game with an injury and starred from start to finish. He shot 9-of-15 from the field and scored 16 of his 24 in the second half to mark his sixth 20-point game of the season. No bucket was bigger than his last. Withe the Illini leading 58-56, he drove the lane and drained a floater before the shot clock expired to give the Illini a four-point lead with 16 seconds left to seal the win.

Prediction: Illinois 78, Northwestern 65