Purdue at Illinois: Three In the Key Matchup Preview/Prediction

Illinois returns home to host Purdue in the second of a stretch of four games in 10 days for the Illini.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- This is one of those games where eventually something has to give and either Illinois is going to start making jump shots at a higher percentage or Purdue is going to start playing more efficiently on the road. Through the first two months of the 2019-20 season, neither has happened and can’t continue for either squad if they wish to make an appearance in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. 

Illinois head coach Brad Underwood says he’s not concerned with the lack of shooting success. The 40 minutes in East Lansing, Michigan was easily the worst shooting performance by an Illini team under Underwood and the first time they’d fallen below the 30-percent threshold (22 of 75 for 29.3 percent) in a contest.

“We made 11 (3-pointers) the game before,” Underwood said. “Just keep shooting it man. We’re walking through the (handshake) line and [Michigan State head coach] Tom [Izzo] says to me ‘you just had our Duke game’ (Michigan State shot 4 of 16 at home in a loss to Duke on Dec. 3) and I look up at the 12-minute mark and they’re shooting 34 percent and we’re trying to withstand their run and sometimes the ball doesn’t go in. I don’t make too much out of it.”

Purdue is 2-4 away from Mackey Arena averaging just 60.0 points per game and shooting 36.1 percent from the field and 27.0 percent from 3-point range. Purdue (9-5, 2-1 in Big Ten) has an assist-to-turnover ratio of just 0.79 away from West Lafayette, Ind., as compared to 1.78 at home. For the distinct comparison, look no further than Sasha Stefanovic. The third-year sophomore guard is averaging 4.8 points per game on the road and as compared to 14.3 points per game at home. He’s shooting 28 of 51 from 3-point range in front of the Mackey Arena crowd but only 6 of 24 on those shots away from home. 

“It makes a difference (playing at home)," Stefanovic said prior to the double-overtime win over Minnesota on Thursday night. "When you have 14,000 (fans) on the edge of their seat when you're shooting the ball, that's pretty cool, and it makes a difference, for me at least. Now I have to figure out how to do it (on the road)."

Game 15: Purdue at Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Sunday, Jan. 5, 2020: 7 p.m. CST, State Farm Center, Champaign, Ill.

Capacity: 15,544

Records: Illinois 9-5, 1-2 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Purdue 9-5, 2-1 in Big Ten; 26-10, 16-4 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.

Line: Illinois by 2

Series notes: Purdue leads 102-87. Illinois leads 57-36 in games played in Champaign but the Boilermakers have won four in a row including a 17-7 mark under head coach Matt Painter. The 189 previous meetings between the two teams make this the seventh-most frequently played rivalry in the Big Ten.

TV: FS1 - Jeff Levering (PBP), Tim Miles (analyst)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 84 and at FightingIllini.com.

----------------

Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after the tip.

------------------

Illinois Fighting Illini center Kofi Cockburn (21) is defended by Michigan State Spartans forward Marcus Bingham Jr. (30) during the second half of a game at the Breslin Center :: Mike Carter/USA TODAY Sports

1) Some big battles in the paint

When Underwood talks about Illinois being at its best when there are collisions at the rim, look no further than this game. Purdue will likely use its twin tower lineup of 7-foot-3 Haarms and 280-pound Trevion Williams at the same time to help slow down Kofi Cockburn. The Illini's 7-foot, 290-pound center is putting together a runaway campaign for Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors as he earned the freshman weekly honor for the fifth time Monday. once again the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Week, Cockburn got the league's freshman of the week nod after scoring a career-high 26 points with nine rebounds and two blocks in last Sunday’s win over North Carolina A&T. His 26 points equaled the highest scoring total by a league freshman this season, while his 11 field goals marked the most baskets by a conference rookie on the year. Painter made some interesting comments Friday about seeing somebody of Cockburn's size when Isaac Haas was on Purdue's campus and the key was not fouling the big man as the Boilermakers' opponents tended to do because they were so focused on his presence in the paint. The defensive matchups might be interesting as Haarms can make perimeter shots and that may force the Illini to go with having Giorgi Bezhanishvili guard him defensively in order to keep Cockburn, who has totaled 11 blocked shots in the last five games as a rim protector. 

Purdue Boilermakers center Matt Haarms (32) loft the ball over the outstretched arm of Minnesota Golden Gophers center Daniel Oturu (25) in the first half at Mackey Arena :: Sandra Dukes/USA TODAY Sports

2) Who wins on near the glass and the rim?

For the first time in over 20 years, Purdue won a game when allowing an opponent to grab 50 rebounds. Minnesota outrebounded the Boilermakers 50-41 in Thursday's contest. The last time Purdue won when allowing 50 or more rebounds came on Jan. 29, 1997, vs. Michigan State (won 72-62; outrebounded 50-36). Purdue has now been outrebounded in two of its last three games after outrebounding opponents in its first 11 games of the season, posting a rebound margin of negative-3. Purdue is 7-2 this year 123-13 under head coach Matt Painter when winning both the rebound and turnover battles.

Illinois leads the NCAA in rebound margin at plus-11.6. Illinois ranks third nationally in offensive rebound percentage (39.3 percent) and with its shooting woes, offensive putbacks might be its most consistent form of offense right now. The Illini are getting 12.9 second-chance points per game and according to hoop-math.com, 13 percent of its made field goals at the rim are coming via a putback opportunity.  Illinois has outrebounded its opponent in 10 of 14 games, and eight times by double digits. Cockburn is tied for 24th in the NCAA with six double-doubles and is one of only four freshmen on the list with at least six along with Duke’s Vernon Carey (eight), Memphis’ Precious Achiuwa (six) and Washington’s Isaiah Stewart (six). Cockburn tied the Illinois freshman mark for double-doubles in a season just 10 games into the year. He is one of only seven Illini freshmen ever to tally multiple double-doubles, and he is on pace to shatter the record of six first set by Efrem Winters in 1982-83. 

Illinois Fighting Illini forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili (15) shoots over Michigan State Spartans forward Marcus Bingham Jr. (30) during the first half of a game at the Breslin Center :: Mike Carter/USA TODAY Sports

3) Will Giorgi wake up? 

Underwood balked at a question Saturday asked if he had concerns with the production level out of the power forward spot due to Bezhanishvili seeing his point average dip by four, his field goal percentage dip nearly six percent and his turnover numbers increase in Big Ten Conference play.

“I think it’s one of those things where we’d like to be able to say every night we’re going to get 25 points from a certain spot. It’s not necessarily that way,” Underwood said. “I think Giorgi has been one of our top assists guys, I think we’ve got to find ways to get him post opportunities. It’s not something I worry about. In every game, there’s a schematic part to a game that you have to adjust to or handle a little differently.” 

And while all of what Underwood makes sense, this isn't a game where Bezhanishvili can likely be a glue guy without much scoring punch in order for Illinois to win. He'll need to be an appropriate offensive counter to Cockburn and he'll need to guard Haarms for a full 22 feet and in for the Illini defense, which has allowed just an average of 63.2 points on 40.8 percent shooting, including 30.3 percent from 3-point range, to continue its stellar play. 

Prediction: Illinois 67, Purdue 64