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How Accurate Were ESPN College Game Day's Picks? Illinois-Michigan and More

With analysts considered to be among the best in the business, how did GameDay perform in Week 8?

Jason Langendorf

Host Pat McAfee dances on his chair to “Shout” during ESPN’s “College GameDay” Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 on the campus of the University of Oregon in Eugene, Ore.
Host Pat McAfee dances on his chair to “Shout” during ESPN’s “College GameDay” Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 on the campus of the University of Oregon in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Pat McAfee, Lee Corso and the boys over at ESPN’s College GameDay have taken over Saturday autumn mornings. The show sets up shop in a different campus every week, previews the biggest games of the week and shamelessly parties with the townies. It’s college football’s version of a traveling circus, but given that it also features some of the game’s most respected minds and performers – Nick Saban, Desmond Howard, Kirk Herbstreit – the crew’s in-show predictions are taken seriously by many.

But here’s a question: Should they be?

That’s not a swipe at GameDay or any of its analysts – just an acknowledgment that ESPN (Entertainment Sports Programming Network) has, over the years, increasingly emphasized the “E” in its name at least as much as the “S.” (Note this week's appearance by PGA Tour pro and guest prognosticator Scottie Scheffler.) So it’s fair game to ask: Just how well GameDay’s crew performs on its picks?

Below, we take a closer look at this week’s profit or loss made on a hypothetical $100 moneyline bet on each of ESPN GameDay’s consensus picks – including a prescient winner in Illinois-Michigan game:

South Carolina (-115) vs. Oklahoma (-105)

Nick Saban: South Carolina
Kirk Herbstreit: Oklahoma
Pat McAfee: South Carolina
Desmond Howard: South Carolina
Scottie Scheffler: South Carolina
Lee Corso: South Carolina

Consensus pick: South Carolina
Winner: South Carolina
Profit/Loss: +86.96

Arkansas (+115) vs. LSU (-135)

Saban: Arkansas
Herbstreit: LSU
McAfee: Arkansas
Howard: LSU
Scheffler: Arkansas
Corso: LSU

Consensus pick: None
Winner: LSU
Profit/Loss: 0

Total profit: +86.96

Georgia Tech (+415) vs. Notre Dame (-575)

Saban: Notre Dame
Herbstreit: Notre Dame
McAfee: Notre Dame
Howard: Notre Dame
Scheffler: Notre Dame
Corso: Notre Dame

Pick: Notre Dame
Consensus pick: Notre Dame
Winner: Notre Dame
Profit/Loss: +17.39

Total profit: +104.35

Louisville (+170) vs. Miami (-210)

Saban: Miami
Herbstreit: Louisville
McAfee: Miami
Howard: Miami
Scheffler: Miami
Corso: Miami

Consensus pick: Miami
Winner: Miami
Profit/Loss: +47.62

Total profit: +151.97

Illinois (+160) vs. Michigan (-190)

Saban: Illinois
Herbstreit: Illinois
McAfee: Michigan
Howard: Michigan
Scheffler: Illinois
Corso: Illinois

Consensus pick: Illinois
Winner: Illinois
Profit/Loss: +160

Total profit: +311.97

Nebraska (+195) vs. Indiana (-245)

Saban: Nebraska
Herbstreit: Indiana
McAfee: Indiana
Howard: Indiana
Scheffler: Indiana
Corso: Indiana

Consensus pick: Indiana
Winner: Indiana
Profit/Loss: +40.82

Total profit: +352.79

Colorado (+110) vs. Arizona (-130)

Saban: Colorado
Herbstreit: Arizona
McAfee: Colorado
Howard: Colorado
Scheffler: Colorado
Corso: Colorado

Consensus pick: Colorado
Winner: Colorado
Profit/Loss: +110

Total profit: +462.79

West Virginia (+120) vs. Kansas State (-145)

Saban: West Virginia
Herbstreit: Kansas State
McAfee: West Virginia
Howard: Kansas State
Scheffler: Kansas State
Corso: Kansas State

Consensus pick: Kansas State
Winner: Kansas State
Profit/Loss: +68.97

Total profit: +531.76

Central Florida (+425) vs. Iowa State (-575)

Saban: Iowa State
Herbstreit: Iowa State
McAfee: Iowa State
Howard: Iowa State
Scheffler: Iowa State
Corso: Iowa State

Consensus pick: Iowa State
Winner: Iowa State
Profit/Loss: +17.39

Total profit: +549.15

Tennessee (+126) vs. Alabama (-152)

Saban: Alabama
Herbstreit: Tennessee
McAfee: Tennessee
Howard: Tennessee
Scheffler: Alabama
Corso: Alabama

Consensus pick: None
Winner: Tennessee
Profit/Loss: 0

Total profit: +549.15

Georgia (+165) vs. Texas (-200)

Saban: Texas
McAfee: Texas
Howard: Texas
Scheffler: Texas
Corso: Texas

Consensus pick: Texas
Winner: Georgia
Profit/Loss: -100

Total profit: +449.15

Most profitable analyst: Lee Corso (+423.22)

The former Indiana and Louisville coach went 9-2 in Week 8 and turned a "profit" of $423.22, beating out Howard, who also went 9-2 but failed to pick the underdog of the week in Illinois. (That'll teach him.)

Least profitable analyst: Nick Saban (-60.64)

With seven national championships to his name, Saban is literally as accomplished as they come, but this weekend was not to be for the Alabama coaching legend. He went 6-5 on his picks, though held his "losses" to only -$60.64, thanks in large part to his two underdog picks in Colorado and Illinois.

All in all, the GameDay crew had itself a weekend, going 8-1 on consensus picks, correctly picking two underdogs to win outright (Colorado and Illinois), and turning a $449.15 "profit." The only miss: Georgia-Texas. The No. 5 Bulldogs' 30-15 victory sent home the GameDay crew, which unanimously picked the No. 1 Longhorns, with one blemish on its record.

In addition to the usual wagering caveats, be advised: This is not an endorsement of sports betting in general or, more specifically, relying on the predictive powers of analysts who wear big, funny mascot heads on a sports entertainment program. Still, if you happened to heed the word of the GameDay crew for Week 8, you probably had a good weekend.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Instant Analysis: Illinois 21, Michigan 7

Can Bret Bielema Transform Illinois Into a College Football Powerhouse?

Illinois Football Legend Red Grange: His Legacy and Impact

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Jason Langendorf
JASON LANGENDORF

Jason Langendorf is a longtime journalist who has covered football and basketball, among other sports, for ESPN, Sporting News, the Chicago Sun-Times and numerous other publications.

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