ESPN Predicts Outcome of Illinois Football vs. South Carolina in Citrus Bowl

ESPN's FPI analytics view the Illini as underdogs against the Gamecocks, but the numbers also tell a more complex story

Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Jaheim Clarke (25) celebrates a defensive stop with linebacker Ryan Meed (34) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

During the 2024 college football regular season, ESPN’s FPI analytics were quite accurate in predicting the outcome of Illinois’ games.

In fact, ESPN's metrics favored the team that would go on to win in 11 of the Illini's 12 games, with the only misstep coming in Illinois’ home win over Michigan. (The Illini had been given a 43.3 percent chance of victory ahead of that upset).

That trend doesn't bode well for Illinois in postseason play. If ESPN stays on its hot streak, the Illini will be leaving Orlando, Florida, with a loss, as FPI sees them as firm underdogs (27.5 percent chance of winning) in their Citrus Bowl matchup against No. 15 South Carolina on New Year's Eve. 

Final touches in Champaign.#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/cyc5cje8AJ

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 22, 2024

One glimmer of hope for Illinois: ESPN has been a bit off the mark this season when it comes to South Carolina, inaccurately predicting three of the Gamecocks' games.

Still, all three of those matchups were practically coin flips. Against LSU, the Gamecocks were given a 50.5 percent chance to win and lost in a 36-33 heartbreaker. A few weeks later, South Carolina welcomed then-No. 10 Texas A&M, which arrived in Columbia as slight favorites (52.5 percent). But the Gamecocks routed the Aggies 44-20.

In its season finale, South Carolina traveled to Clemson and knocked off the eventual ACC champs 17-14, despite entering the game as slight underdogs (44.6 percent winning probability).

Given ESPN’s fairly accurate predictions for both squads, it's clear that the Illini have an uphill battle. But they're unlikely to be overwhelmed by the moment after massive tests at Oregon and at Penn State, and the Michigan win demonstrates a certain ability to play over their heads. Don’t be surprised if Illinois makes this one interesting.

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