ESPN Predicts Winner of Illinois Football vs. Michigan State

FPI has hit the mark on Illini projections this season, but the Spartans have proved it wrong more than once

Nov 2, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini running back Josh McCray (6) runs for a touchdown during the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

ESPN’s FPI uses analytics to predict the winner of every college football game across the country, and the final projection is in for Illinois (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) in its clash with Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) on Saturday at Champaign's Memorial Stadium (1:30 p.m. CT, on FS1).

Game time vs. Michigan State ⬇️

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— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) November 4, 2024

ESPN's formula has the Illini favored, with a 67 percent chance of taking down the Spartans.

Arguably, it feels like the Illini, between their record and home turf, could stand to be favored by a few more percentage points. But the analytics seem to show some respect for Michigan State – and understandably so, after ESPN’s prediction has undermined them twice.

In Week 2 against Maryland, the Spartans were given a measly 17.3 percent chance of pulling off the upset, and they did just that in a 27-24 victory behind a massive performance from wide receiver Nick Marsh (eight receptions, 194 yards, one touchdown).

Then in Week 8, MSU entered its contest with Iowa as underdogs with odds similar to those this week (Iowa was given a 68.6 percent chance of winning) but pulled out a 32-20 win behind a school-record six field goals from kicker Jonathan Kim.

As for the analytics accuracy on the Illinis side, ESPN has correctly picked the outcome of each Illinois game except for the win over Michigan, even accurately picking the most recent home loss to Minnesota.

Clearly, ESPN’s predictor isn’t a Magic 8 Ball, but it obviously has sniffed out certain trends for Illinois this season. Still, as the FPI results show, the Spartans can never be counted out.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

3 Key Questions Ahead of Illinois Football's Matchup vs. Michigan State

Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Illinois Football's 2024 Finish

How to Watch: Illinois Football vs. Michigan State (Week 12)