ESPN Prediction: Who Wins Illinois Football vs. Rutgers Matchup?

The World Wide Leader advises to expect the unexpected in this coin flip of a matchup

Nov 16, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini wide receiver Pat Bryant (13) runs with the ball after a catch during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Throughout the 2024 college football season, ESPN’s FPI analytics have been quite accurate in predicting the outcome of Illinois matchups.

After 10 Illini games in the books, ESPN has picked nine correctly – the only misstep coming in the Oct. 19 win over Michigan, for which the Illini were given a 41.3 percent chance of winning.

Coming off an impressive 38-16 victory over Michigan State last Saturday, No. 24 Illinois (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten) has returned to the AP poll and seeks to continue its forward momentum in Piscataway, New Jersey, this Saturday against Rutgers (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten).

AP Poll No. 24#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/Znc05tHKvS

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) November 17, 2024

Aiming to finish its regular season at 9-3, Illinois needs a win over Rutgers and then a victory over Northwestern at Wrigley Field next week to match the winningest season the program has seen since 2007. 

Unfortunately, if ESPN’s FPI Predictor maintains its accuracy in predicting Illinois games this season, the Illini are set to fall short, as the formula favors the Scarlet Knights with a 53.6 percent win probability.

Still, other recent history is on Illinois' side, as Rutgers has already dropped two home games in which it was favored by ESPN, including a massive 42-7 loss to Wisconsin – a contest the Scarlet Knights walked into given a 64.1 percent chance of winning.

Following that loss, Rutgers welcomed UCLA to town and, with a 68.4 percent win probability, fell once again, this time 35-32 to the Bruins.

After four straight losses and with a 1-4 Big Ten record, Rutgers' season seemed all but lost – until it knocked off Minnesota at home (a game ESPN gave the Scarlet Knights only a 45.5 percent chance of winning) and then blew out Maryland 31-17.

Between those janky projections and Rutgers' up-and-down season, fans and bettors shouldn't have any clear expectations Saturday at SHI Stadium.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Big Ten Football Week 13 Power Rankings: Illinois, Rutgers Rising as Saturday Clash Nears

Play of the Week: Illinois Football's Josh McCray Stiff-Arms Into End Zone

Illinois Football Injuries Update: Uncertainty at Receiver, Linebacker