Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Illinois Football's 2024 Finish

Considering the different possible outcomes for Bret Bielema and the Illini down the stretch

Nov 2, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema gets a hand from the crowd before the start of a game with the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Two short weeks ago, Illinois was ranked No. 20 and fresh off a 21-7 victory over the defending national champions.

It was all sunshine and rainbows in Champaign.

The Illini were sitting at 6-1, with three top-25 wins and a single loss having come at the hands of then-No. 9 Penn State at Happy Valley.

Then Illinois traveled west, to Eugene, Oregon, to take on the top-ranked Ducks.

Aside from the opportunity – no matter how slim – to topple the best team in the country was the unspoken win-win for the Illini:

No one expected them to win.

So when they fell short in Eugene – massively short, for the record – the initial sting didn't take long to fade. The Illini, though humbled, were still in position to win 10 games for the first time in two decades and with a legit opportunity to run the table and set up the 2025 squad for big business. Afterward, Illinois coach Bret Bielema issued a clear warning: “We can’t let Oregon beat us twice."

On a positive note, the Illini didn't.

Instead, they let Minnesota beat them.

At home.

There was no apparent Oregon hangover. The Gophers simply outplayed Illinois. The Illini didn’t spit the bit or come out flat. They were just outplayed. At least for one day, the Gophers were better than them.

So ... what now?

Does the Illini crumble? Do they recognize the opportunity still left in front of them and rally like the confident, gutsy group they appeared to be through the Michigan game? Or do they settle somewhere in between, especially now that the roster appears to be limping to the finish line?

Let's take a hard look at the outer edges of what's possible for the remainder of the Illini's season:

Illinois' Worst-Case Scenario

First, a trip down memory lane:

Back in 2022, Illinois was 7-1, ranked 16th in the country and set to take on Michigan State. Playing at home on Dad’s Day Weekend, the Illini fell by eight points to an unranked opponent. (Sound familiar?)

Now, we don't believe in conspiracy theories, but if we did ...

Look, all we’re saying is that the Illini – some of these Illini, in fact, including Bielema and members of his staff – have been here before. They have seen this movie.

The rest of that '22 season: After the loss to Sparty, Illinois lost its next game – also at home, also against an unranked opponent (Purdue). By the time the Illini rolled into Ann Arbor a week later to take on No. 3 Michigan, the season already felt lost. Illinois petered out with a 19-10 defeat against Ole Miss in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

But imagine if the narrative was changed just slightly. Because here's the thing: the Illini very nearly walked into the Big House that season and stole the Wolverines' lunch money before thrashing Northwestern a week later. What if, instead, Illinois' defense had turned Michigan over on just one of the Wolverines' three fourth-quarter drives that ended in a field goal? What if the Illini offense had squeezed in one more scoring drive before the gun? What if, with nine seconds left, UM kicker Jake Moody had floated his last attempt of the day wide?

With a win in Ann Arbor, does Illinois take a full head of steam through Northwestern and into Tampa, Florida, to run the Rebels back to Mississippi? We'll never know. But if the Illini had, they would have finished the season at 10-3 and loaded for bear, with a much more promising outlook on which to wine and dine recruits and donors.

Well, guess what? Illinois still has it within its control to finish this season in that exact position.

But if it's the same old, same old, and the Illini turn back the clock, they'll let down against MSU, freefall into an afterthought bowl game and wind up in a state that preceded their 2023 season – which collapsed into a disappointing 5-7 campaign.

What appears to be worst case down the stretch in 2024 – a 7-5 season – is traditionally solid stuff in Champaign. But Bielema is striving for something more, and real change doesn't happen without breaking the mold. It's time for the Illini to demand better from themselves.

Illinois' Best-Case Scenario

It’s simple: win out.

And, frankly, it’s not exactly far-fetched.

Even after back-to-back losses and (surely) losing its spot in the AP Top 25, Illinois should be favored to win in each of its remaining regular-season games.

Each of those matchups comes against a squad that currently hovers below .500 in Big Ten play. The Illini welcome Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) after this week's bye, then travel to Rutgers (4-4, 1-4) and cap off their schedule games at Wrigley Field against Northwestern (4-5, 2-4).

The 2024 B1G schedule is here. #Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/oyXkXaLipR

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) November 2, 2023

Let's say Illinois handily wins all those contests. Now it’s time to go bowling.

In this particular hypothetical, let's also assume Alabama falls to LSU this weekend and misses out on the College Football Playoff.

And let's say after winning out, the Illini land in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida, where they find themselves matched up with the Tide – still an SEC football power and not far removed from its recent perch at the pinnacle of college football.

And, for the sake of argument, let's just say Illinois takes down Kalen DeBoer’s squad – convincingly – in a thrilling matchup to finish the season 10-3, putting the finishing touches on the program's best season since at least 2001.

A win over Alabama in the Citrus Bowl seems a bit of a stretch, you say? Hey, three years ago, when Nick Saban was coaching the defending national champions, a three-loss 'Bama squad coached by DeBoers probably sounded like a fantasy.  Times change.

Plus, finishing out the regular season 3-0 and winning a bowl game should be the expectation for a coach and a team that has made plenty of not-so-subtle hints about changing the football culture in Champaign.

Not only would a season like that be a noteworthy accomplishment for Bielema and Co., but it also could serve as an inflection point – a palpable shift in mentality, one that infuses an entire program with confidence, carries weight with recruits and has the net effect of driving revenue and donations (which, of course, fuels future success).

In a 2022 NIL team ranking from On3, Illinois football ranked 53rd among FBS schools – and dead last among the 14 Big Ten schools thatmade up the conference at the time. Compare that to Illini basketball, which nearly 10 percent of college basketball coaches believe has a top-three NIL situation, and it’s obvious why Bielema isn't wooing the same collective caliber of talent as his Illinois counterpart, Brad Underwood.

Wins can begin to change that. Winning seasons can change it for good.

Where Are the Illini Headed?

Which path the Illini ultimately take remains to be seen – but there are two things working in their favor.

One: Illinois is headed into a bye week. That gives the injured Illini welcome recovery time, as well as Bielema and his staff the space to reflect, adjust and enter the coming weeks ready to change their fortunes.

Two: Bielema and many within the program have already been down the other path. it's front of mind and visceral. The final stretch of that 2022 season should serve as a painful-but-productive learning experience. And if Bielema really is the guy Illinois has been looking for to lead this program all these years, he'll ensure that the Illini grow from it.

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