Why Illinois Football Fans Should Be Laser-Focused on SMU vs. Clemson

The ACC championship may determine – critically – which opponent the Illini face in their bowl game

Fans cheer on the Illinois football team in the Illini's 23-17 win over Kansas on Sept. 7, 2024, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. / University of Illinois

On Saturday at Wrigley Field, No. 21 Illinois wrapped up its regular season with a 38-28 victory over Northwestern, snatching back the Land of Lincoln Trophy and putting the finishing touches on its first nine-win season since 2007.

And with that ninth win, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Illini will be heading to Orlando, Florida, to take on the SEC's top team that falls short of the College Football Playoff, in the Citrus Bowl on New Years Eve.

For at least a week, that opponent seemed to be perennial football powerhouse Alabama.

After the Crimson Tide were upset in a 24-3 blowout loss by Oklahoma in Week 13, the Tide dropped from No. 7 in the CFP rankings to No. 13. Seemingly on the outside looking in, Alabama needed to take care of business against Auburn in Week 14 and hope for some good fortune around the rest of the college football landscape that would allow it to leapfrog back into the CFP's top 12.

Bama took care of its end of things (with a 28-14 win over Auburn), and when then-No. 12 Clemson fell 17-14 to South Carolina and then-No. 6 Miami was upset 42-38 by Syracuse, the Tide got the luck they needed to slide up two spots, to No. 11 in the CFP rankings.

Check out the full College Football Playoff Top 25 for games played through Saturday, November 30.

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— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 4, 2024

So as of now, Illinois is expected to be matched up with either No. 13 Ole Miss or No. 14 South Carolina. Both SEC squads are 9-3, with comparable resumes, making Illinois’ draw appear to be somewhat of a coin flip.

And although the regular season is over and Illinois (as well as any potential bowl competitor) will be be off during this coming championship weekend, that doesn’t mean nothing can change.

In fact, the ACC Championship – which will pit No. 17 Clemson against No. 8 SMU – may have massive repercussions for Alabama’s spot in the CFP, and therefore who the Illini get in the Citrus Bowl.

So let’s take a look at the two possible outcomes:

SMU win (53.8 percent chance, according to ESPN Analytics)

If the Mustangs win, it’s pretty simple: They receive an automatic bid to the CFP and the rest of the bracket remains the same, barring any absolute chaos elsewhere in the country. So to be clear, if SMU takes home the ACC Championship, Alabama is very likely to stay in the CFP.

Clemson win (46.2 percent chance, according to ESPN Analytics)

This is where it gets fun. If the Tigers can upend the Mustangs, they lock up the ACC’s automatic CFP bid, meaning SMU is eligible for an at-large bid. In this situation, SMU would move to 11-2, with its two losses coming against No. 18 BYU and No. 17 Clemson. Compare that to Alabama’s three losses, which came against unranked Vanderbilt, unranked Oklahoma and No. 7 Tennessee, and SMU seems to be the clear-cut choice for the last at-large bid. It's worth noting, though: SMU has zero wins over ranked teams, which pales in comparison to Alabama’s three (including a big victory over No. 5 Georgia).

To summarize, although Illinois is resting this week, Illini fans shouldn’t be – because the ACC Championship will go a long way toward determining the Citrus Bowl opponent for Bret Bielema and his on-the-rise squad.

The larger question in all this: Why does it matter? Two reasons: 1) Alabama is one of the biggest brands in college football, and the Tide can help draw more attention (including from future recruits) to Illinois football; and 2) Bama's ranks will likely be thinned by a number of NFL prospects who will sit out the bowl game as a precaution, leveling the playing field and setting up the Illini for a possible upset.

Imagine an Illinois-Alabama matchup on New Year’s Eve afternoon. There would be no better opportunity for the Illini to prove themselves to the college football world and viewers across the country.

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