Illinois Football: Nothing to Lose Against Oregon? Think Again

The Illini absolutely have more to lose than a game, but imagine – just imagine – if they don't

Oct 19, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini players wear the throwback helmets and uniforms in honor of legendary Red Grange and the 100th anniversary of Memorial Stadium before the game against the Michigan Wolverines. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The declaration that a team has "nothing to lose" is always a disguised slight of sorts. It implies that said team's chances of winning are virtually nil, for one thing. It does a disservice to everything that group has previously accomplished. It asks the underdogs to go for it, overlooking that of course they will, and disregards a well-earned confidence in their own skills and patterns of success in favor of a Hail Mary.

It's often said in a spirit that assumes even a temporary advantage is out of reach. "People tell themselves, 'Oh, I have nothing to lose,' but you have nothing to lose until you have a lead that you can lose, you know?" the tennis writer Steve Tignor once told me, referring to a heavy underdog going up two sets against world No. 1 Novak Djokovic at the 2023 U.S. Open, only to see that lead and the win ripped away from him. In the absence of a lead, being behind for an entire sporting event doesn't sound like much fun either. Losing always sucks.

A great opportunity awaits.#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/n0VZeXOSrJ

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 21, 2024

And that leads us to Saturday's game between No. 20 Illinois (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and top-ranked Oregon (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten). Oddsmakers have pegged the Ducks not just to win, but to win going away – far, far away, by no fewer than three touchdowns. Look at the teams' respective performances against their only common opponent this season and the odds seem completely fair: The Illini snuck past Purdue 50-49 in Week 7. In Week 8, Oregon annihilated the Boilers 35-0.

But are these teams really separated by all that much? Illinois' only loss of the season thus far came against No. 3 Penn State. Yes, Oregon scraped by No. 4 Ohio State two weeks ago (32-31), but the Ducks also eked out a close call against No. 17 Boise State – ranked just three spots ahead of the Illini, by the way. Might the rollover against Purdue leave Oregon a bit overconfident for what should be a sterner test from Illinois? Perhaps the Illini's flying start to the season will provide crucial self-belief and momentum. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

It's not a long walk to arrive at the cliche. Illinois' best, by definition, is not as good as Oregon's best – or so say the rankings. To win, the Illini must hope they and the Ducks meet somewhere in the middle, or else take some uncharacteristic risks. Might as well try something crazy. They've got nothing to lose!

It's not true. The risk is real, and the Illini have a laundry list of items they could lose in Eugene: their comfort in playing with a particular level of risk, their sense of their own potential, the intimidation they've cultivated in opponents, their momentum, their morale, the game. And along with it, the Illini would lose all that magic dust swirling around this charmed season, as well as any distant hopes for a College Football Playoff appearance. It's a lot.

But what if they capture an early lead Saturday? What if they hold it? What if – what if – they beat the No. 1-ranked team in college football? What if, what if, what if.

What the cliche misses is that there's always plenty to lose.

But, sometimes, there's just more to gain.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Football: A Historical Look at Matchups Against No. 1-Ranked Teams

Illinois Football vs. Oregon: Week 9 Odds, Ends and Prediction

Urban Meyer Breaks Down the Bret Bielema Effect at Illinois