Illinois Football vs. Oregon: Week 9 Odds, Ends and Prediction

The No. 1-ranked Ducks are huge favorites against the No. 20 Illini at Autzen Stadium

Oct 12, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks fans cheer on a touchdown by Oregon Ducks wide receiver Evan Stewart (7) during the first half of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Illinois’ 21-7 win against Michigan is so last week. As much as things went right at Memorial Stadium – the packed house, the killer throwback uniforms, the big-game vibes, the performance on the field – it’s nothing compared with what the 20th-ranked Illini (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) have next on their to-do list.

A game at No. 1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) is where everything gets real in a hurry. The Ducks are huge favorites, with the point spread stuck on 21½ since it opened. A national CBS audience will be tuning in Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT, with Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson on the call.

Keep writing history.

The 2024 Fighting Illini's three Top-25 wins are tied for the program's most since 1946. #Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/LLonM4Q8ma

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 21, 2024

The Ducks have the home-field advantage, which they probably don’t need. They have quarterback Dillon Gabriel, a leader in the Heisman Trophy race. They have traditional excellence and talent galore and all the momentum in the world … yeah, you get it.

Quack attack: It’s not the Oregon of many a past year, with a pinball offense that makes defenders’ heads spin and puts the scoreboard on tilt. These Ducks are more methodical, ranked fourth in the Big Ten in total offense to go with seventh in total defense. But Gabriel’s accuracy is scary and so is the Ducks’ pass rush, with Jordan Burch and Mateo Uiagalelei pretty much unblockable thus far.

I-L-L … U-S-I-O-N? If the Illini get blown out by four or five touchdowns, it won’t be the end of the world or even the end of their opportunity to have a breakthrough season. Ten wins would still be out there, regardless. But it would zap any notion of a College Football Playoff appearance or even a legit belonging among the top couple of tiers of teams in the country. But, hey, if they’re competitive out there? If it’s a winnable game into the fourth quarter? Giddyup.

Series trends: There are none. The schools have met three times, in 1970, 1993 and 1995, the last of those when Oregon rallied from 31-20 down entering the fourth quarter to win 34-31 in Eugene.

ATS, total trends: The Ducks are favored by 21½, with a total of 54½. They have covered only once in four games at home – that was the narrow upset against Ohio State – and three of their last four games overall have gone under by a lot, mainly because UCLA, Michigan State and Purdue were held to a combined 23 points. The Illini are 5-1-1 against the spread, with five of their seven games having gone under.

The picks: Illinois and the under.

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5 Key Numbers to Watch for Illinois vs Oregon in Week 9