Minnesota Matters: How Illinois Relaunches Its Season Saturday

The Illini can still make 2024 special, but it starts Saturday with winning a key area against the Gophers

Oct 26, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) throws a pass during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Despite a disheartening loss to Oregon last Saturday, No. 24 Illinois (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) still has an opportunity to put together its most successful season in decades.

To do that, though, Saturday's home game against scorching-hot Minnesota (11 a.m. CT, on FS1) is a must-win. Now, mathematically, that's not quite true: The Illini still have wiggle room in any quest for their first 10-win season since 2001. But realistically? A defeat could lead to the sort of morale-crumbling self-doubt that sends a team unaccustomed to contention into a death spiral.

Game time announcement ⬇️

Let’s get Memorial Stadium loud: https://t.co/95wqN09MK1#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/l184qaTaNe

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 27, 2024

While Illinois is ranked and playing at home, the Illini are still underdogs (+3) against the unranked Gophers.

And so how exactly do the Illini go about the business of, ahem, upsetting Minnesota?

First things first: win the turnover battle.

The Gophers are coming off three consecutive wins, over USC, UCLA and Maryland. Tellingly, they were actually outgained in total yards by the Trojans and Bruins – and managed to best Maryland's total by only 16 yards even in a 48-23 brutalizing of the Terrapins.

It doesn't take a supercomputer to figure out where Minnesota made up the difference. an 8-to-1 advantage in turnover margin.

The Gophers are one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, and despite a middling pass rush, their secondary has been a menace to opposing quarterbacks. Minnesota's 15 interceptions rank second in FBS, paced by freshman defensive back Koi Perich's five picks.

Offensively, quarterback Max Brosmer has thrown only four interceptions on the season and the Gophers have limited the fumbles they've given away to three.

The upshot for the Illini is that quarterback Luke Altmyer has been pretty protective of the football himself (only three interceptions) while delivering excellent production in more games than not. Moreover, the Illinois D is no slouch itself in the forced turnovers department (14).

What's concerning, however, is that two of Altmyer’s picks came last week against an Oregon secondary that entered the game with only five in 2024, while the Illini defense managed to force only one turnover. Those trends must change immediately for Illinois to have much chance of getting by the Gophers.

One more non-negotiable for the Illini: run. And run well.

Minnesota has allowed 191.3 rushing yards per game in its three defeats. In its only double-digit loss, against Iowa, the Gophers gave up a whopping 272 rushing yards.

That (finally) is a trend that favors the Illini, as their run game has seen an uptick in recent weeks.

In an overtime win against Purdue, the Illini ran for 177 yards, then followed that up by thrashing an elite Michigan run defense for 187 yards. Even against Oregon, where Illinois faced a massive second-half deficit that forced Altmyer's hand (and arm), the Illini still managed 130-plus yards on the ground.

The formula seems simple: Feed the three-headed running back hydra of Josh McCray, Aidan Laughery and Ca'Lil Valentine.

Obviously, offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. will still need to mix up his play-calling, but with Altmyer in a bit of a rut and receiver Pat Bryant questionable to play Saturday, the long ball may be a long shot against the Gophers. Here's an alternative game plan we'll humbly suggest:

Invert the approach. Show a healthy dose of spread packages on first down and second-and-long, pitching creatively and handing off on draws and delays against favorable defensive personnel. Focus the passing game on quick slants and screen passes out of running looks, as well as play-fake deception to spring loose running backs and tight ends open in the flat and allow Altmyer to get his groove back.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Big Ten Football Week 10 Preview: Can Illinois Bounce Back Fast?

Why Illinois Football Is the Underdog Against Unranked Minnesota

3 Key Numbers to Watch for Illinois Football vs. Minnesota in Week 10

Big Ten Football Players to Watch in Week 10: Illinois QB Luke Altmyer's Crucial Test