How Illinois Football Can Pull Off the Upset Against No. 1 Oregon

Can the Illini shock the college football world? Of course it's possible – and here's the blueprint

Oct 12, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) passes the ball in the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks – 7-0, having dominated Big Ten Play and now ranked No. 1 in the nation – appear something close to unstoppable going into Saturday's game with No. 20 Illinois at Autzen Stadium in Eugene (2:30 p.m. CT, CBS). The stakes feel quite different for each team.

Oregon, three-touchdown favorites playing on their home turf – a snake pit for opponents – is expected to win.

For Illinois (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) to keep the dream alive – a magical season, the momentum of a potentially program-changing campaign and, yes, hopes for a spot in the College Football Playoffs – the Illini need to win.

A great opportunity awaits.#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/n0VZeXOSrJ

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 21, 2024

Yet because this is sports, and because wild and crazy things occasionally, wonderfully happen in sports, the question arises:

Can the Illini topple the mighty Ducks?

Yes. Yes, they can. And here are the keys to making it happen:

Protect quarterback Luke Altmyer at all costs.

Well, that’s important in every game, right?

Another yes. But in this game, it is imperative. 

Let's check the data: Oregon has played in only two games decided by single digits. The Ducks needed a last-second field goal to take down Boise State, 37-34, and survived a close scare with the Ohio State in a 32-31 win. A close examination of those games reveals little they shared in common – with one important exception:

Sacks.

In those two contests, Oregon's defense recorded only two sacks combined. 

Compare that to the Purdue, Michigan State and UCLA games – in which the Ducks averaged four sacks and held those teams to a combined 23 points – and an obvious trend emerges.

On the Illinois side, a similar but opposite trend is apparent:

In the Illini's one loss of the season, against Penn State, they allowed seven sacks of Altmyer.

Close call with Purdue? Five sacks.

Impressive win over Michigan? One. 

This isn't exactly rocket science. Teams that pressure opposing quarterbacks tend to get results, while teams that struggle to keep their own quarterback upright usually get the short end of the stick – often right in the eye. The Illini know what must be done. The real conundrum is figuring out how to do it. Humbly, we offer a blueprint that outlines where to start:

The last time that Oregon was ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, they lost the next week at home.

The last time Illinois played No. 1 on the road, they beat No. 1 Ohio State in 2007.

Illinois faces No. 1 Oregon this weekend in Oregon 👀 pic.twitter.com/B61ZdrIYRF

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 25, 2024

Misdirection

The Illini have had a lot of success this season with pre-snap motion, delays and play fakes out of different formations. Give them this: Coach Bret Bielema and offensive coordinator don't play scared, and they've coached up the offensive unit to relish their roles, maintain discipline and avoid mistakes – all critical when pulling off the kind of misdirection plays the Illini will absolutely need to work on Saturday.

Quick throws

Illinois should prioritize checkdowns, short crossing patterns and quick curls – anything that can get the ball out of Altmyer’s hands before the Ducks have a chance to bear down. Quick hitters require long drives and a high execution rate, but they can help the Illini avoid negative plays and stay in manageable down-and-distance situations. 

Heavier formations

More linemen, more tight ends, any formations that give Illinois blocking numbers or advantages. Facing two of the best defensive ends in college football in Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch (five-plus sacks each), the Illini will have to sacrifice some big-play potential to keep Altmyer's pocket clean.

Chip blocks

When Illini running backs Josh McCray and Aidan Laughery empty out of the backfield, they must get a piece of any Ducks edge rushers or blitzing defenders. Altmyer is athletic in the backfield and throws fairly well under pressure, but it will be imperative that Illinois' running backs and tight ends chip to slow the rush and thenquickly find a soft spot in coverage and get turned.

Oregon has scored more than 30 points in each of its games since Week 1, so the Illini need to be preapred for a potential shootout. Small chunks, steady drives and impeccable execution in buying time for Altmyer will give this team a chance to imagine the unimaginable.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Football: A Historical Look at Matchups Against No. 1-Ranked Teams

Illinois Football vs. Oregon: Week 9 Odds, Ends and Prediction

Urban Meyer Breaks Down the Bret Bielema Effect at Illinois