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Illinois Football vs. Northwestern: Odds, Trends and Prediction

The Illini are 7½-point favorites against the Wildcats in a rivalry matchup at Chicago's Wrigley Field

Steven Greenberg

Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Jaheim Clarke (25) celebrates a defensive stop with linebacker Ryan Meed (34) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Jaheim Clarke (25) celebrates a defensive stop with linebacker Ryan Meed (34) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
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It has been a fine football season for Illinois, which is 8-3 (5-3 Big Ten) and enters its regular-season finale ranked 22nd in the AP poll, 25th by the coaches and – the one that really matters this time of year – 23rd by the College Football Playoff committee.

But nothing would muffle the mojo this team has quite like an upset loss against struggling Northwestern (4-7, 2-6) at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The Illini are favored by 7½ points, with the over/under at 43½, in a game that will air on Big Ten Network at 11 a.m. Central.

The Illini are projected to be headed for the Citrus Bowl on New Year's Eve in Orlando, Florida, as long as they win this game. Waiting for them would be one of the SEC's assortment of three-loss teams, a list that, for now, includes Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Missouri.

There is an outside chance Northwestern could sneak into a bowl game with a record of 5-7. At the least, this is a nice chance to put a dent in the armor of a rival before the Wildcats hang up their helmets and say their goodbyes.

The defense needs a day: Coach Bret Bielema isn't looking to see the Illini outscore Northwestern in a back-and-forth affair. He wants to see his defense dominate. That would mean bouncing back after a win at Rutgers in which the Illini couldn't stop the run and allowed the Scarlet Kights – a subpar offensive team – to possess the ball for over 34 minutes. Coordinator Aaron Henry needs a big day from his unit and to solidify his own status.

"O," no: Northwestern's offense is – what's that word? – bad. It's ranked 132nd nationally (and last in the Big Ten) in yards per game (270.1), 131st in yards per play (4.5), 125th in rushing and 120th in passing. The Wildcats' defense could present some problems for the Illini, but the offense goes in as a dead duck.

Series trends: In 2003, as a 6-point underdog at Illinois, Northwestern scored a 45-43 upset, keeping the Illini from qualifying for a bowl game. The two years before that, the Illini won big – 41-3 in 2022 and 47-14 in 2021 – covering easily as the favorites. All three games went over.

ATS, total trends: The Illini are 7-3-1 against the spread this season, and seven of their 11 games have gone under. Northwestern is 4-7 against the spread, and six of its 11 games have gone over. Northwestern has covered twice in its last five games – one a 26-20 win at Purdue, the other a 31-7 loss to Ohio State at Wrigley – but the four losses in that stretch were by 20, 26, 34 and 44 points. This team isn't exactly managing to stay in games.

The picks: Illinois and the over.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Football on Collision Course with SEC Superpower

Illinois Football Should Move Up in CFP Rankings – But How Far?

Instant Analysis: Illinois Wins 36-31 Thriller at Rutgers on Last-Second Score

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Steven Greenberg
STEVEN GREENBERG

Steve Greenberg, a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, has written about college sports since the early 1990s.

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