Illinois Football Faces Crucial Test Against Michigan in Week 8

The Illini are underdogs against the lower-ranked Wolverines – and should be
Sep 21, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;  Michigan Wolverines running back Kalel Mullings (20) rushes for a touchdown in the second half against the USC Trojans at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Sep 21, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Kalel Mullings (20) rushes for a touchdown in the second half against the USC Trojans at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

No. 22 Illinois hosts No. 24 Michigan this Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT (CBS). Better ranking. Better record. Home-field edge. So why does it seem the Illini (5-1) are up against it against the Wolverines (4-2)?

This week’s theme: One hundred years after the first season of football at Memorial Stadium, the school will celebrate the occasion. But will anyone in blue and orange feel like celebrating for long?

There should be glaring concerns about this Illini team, which looked anything but stout in splitting its last two games against very good Penn State and very not-good Purdue. Each opponent rushed for 239 yards on a run defense that has fallen near the bottom of the Big Ten rankings. At least as worrisome as that: Penn State and Purdue combined to sack Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer 12 times.

Fourth-year coach Bret Bielema has improved the program, no doubt, but the play along the lines, especially on offense, is lagging. And few teams want to run the ball and get after the passer at the level the defending national champions do.

The Biel-o-meter: Bielema was all smiles after the Purdue game, a 50-49 overtime near-fiasco. With a win against Michigan, he moves into the conversation for Big Ten Coach of the Year. With a loss, not so much. With a bad loss, his standing takes a real hit. On a scale of 1 (his 2023 defense) to 10 (his 2022 defense), he’s inching tenuously toward a 7.

The line: The Illini are early 1½-point underdogs. Against Michigan, that number is almost a compliment. Watch it grow, though, during the week.

Illini forecast: vs. Michigan (loss), at Oregon (loss), vs. Minnesota (win), vs. Michigan State (win), at Rutgers (win), at Northwestern (win) for a regular-season record of 9-3.

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Steven Greenberg
STEVEN GREENBERG

Steve Greenberg, a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, has written about college sports since the early 1990s.